PREDICT Act
Sponsored By: Representative Budzinski
Introduced
Summary
Blocks federal officials and close associates from betting on political outcomes in real-time prediction markets. The bill creates a broad ban on trading tied to political events for a defined set of "covered individuals" including Members of Congress, the President and Vice President, political appointees, senior executive staff, judicial officers, congressional staff, and certain family members or fiduciaries acting for them.
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- Covered people: Individuals named as covered include Members of Congress, spouses and dependent children, congressional officers and employees, the President, the Vice President, political appointees, executive branch employees at or above senior pay levels, judicial officers, and judicial employees. These people may not enter or offer prediction-market transactions tied to political events.
- Enforcement and penalties: Supervising ethics offices may require disgorgement of profits and assess a penalty equal to 10% of the transaction value, with penalties payable to the Treasury and barred from certain official or campaign accounts.
- Oversight and guidance: Ethics offices must publish descriptions of fines, their justifications, and outcomes on public websites and provide interpretive guidance for undefined terms.
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Bill Overview
Analyzed Economic Effects
1 provisions identified: 0 benefits, 1 costs, 0 mixed.
Ban on Political Prediction Trading
This bill would ban covered federal officials from trading in prediction markets tied to political events while they serve. Covered people would include Members of Congress (and their spouses and dependents), congressional staff, the President and Vice President, political appointees, senior executive employees paid above GS‑15 (or at least 120% of the GS‑15 minimum), senior military officers (O‑7+), judges, judicial staff, and fiduciaries acting for those people. If violated, the supervising ethics office would require disgorgement of any profits and assess a civil penalty equal to 10% of the transaction value, payable to the U.S. Treasury. Penalties could not be paid from non‑salary political or office funds (for example, Members’ Representational Allowances, Senators’ office accounts, campaign contributions, or other non‑salary federal funds). Supervising ethics offices would have to publish enforcement descriptions and issue interpretive guidance; the Office of Government Ethics would supervise independent agencies.
Sponsors & CoSponsors
Sponsor
Budzinski
IL • D
Cosponsors
Rep. Smith, Adrian [R-NE-3]
NE • R
Sponsored 3/25/2026
Rep. Magaziner, Seth [D-RI-2]
RI • D
Sponsored 3/25/2026
Wied
WI • R
Sponsored 3/26/2026
Rep. Lawler, Michael [R-NY-17]
NY • R
Sponsored 4/13/2026
Del. Norton, Eleanor Holmes [D-DC-At Large]
DC • D
Sponsored 4/13/2026
Rep. Hinson, Ashley [R-IA-2]
IA • R
Sponsored 4/13/2026
McCollum
MN • D
Sponsored 4/13/2026
Rep. Baird, James R. [R-IN-4]
IN • R
Sponsored 4/13/2026
Pingree
ME • D
Sponsored 4/13/2026
Fedorchak
ND • R
Sponsored 4/20/2026
Rep. Perez, Marie Gluesenkamp [D-WA-3]
WA • D
Sponsored 4/20/2026
Rep. Miller-Meeks, Mariannette [R-IA-1]
IA • R
Sponsored 4/22/2026
Rep. Green, Al [D-TX-9]
TX • D
Sponsored 4/22/2026
Rep. Stanton, Greg [D-AZ-4]
AZ • D
Sponsored 4/27/2026
Rep. Barrett, Tom [R-MI-7]
MI • R
Sponsored 4/27/2026
Trahan
MA • D
Sponsored 5/4/2026
Rep. Fitzpatrick, Brian K. [R-PA-1]
PA • R
Sponsored 5/4/2026
Rep. Foushee, Valerie P. [D-NC-4]
NC • D
Sponsored 5/4/2026
Joyce (PA)
PA • R
Sponsored 5/4/2026
Rep. Bice, Stephanie I. [R-OK-5]
OK • R
Sponsored 5/13/2026
Rep. Bera, Ami [D-CA-6]
CA • D
Sponsored 5/13/2026
Rep. Foxx, Virginia [R-NC-5]
NC • R
Sponsored 5/14/2026
Rep. Menendez, Robert [D-NJ-8]
NJ • D
Sponsored 5/14/2026
Roll Call Votes
No roll call votes available for this bill.
View on Congress.gov