AA · CIK 1675149
What Alcoa Corporation told the SEC could break it.
Alcoa's results ride on aluminum and alumina prices it doesn't control: LME aluminum averaged $2,614 per metric ton in 2025, up 9%, in a highly cyclical market where Chinese supply adds volatility. The sharpest specific exposure is trade policy on top of that — U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum rose from 10% to 25% in March 2025 and to 50% in June, and because Alcoa imports most of its Canadian-smelter metal into the U.S., those tariffs cost it $571 million in 2025 (and drove the U.S. Midwest premium up 211%). Its refining and smelting inputs add a third commodity channel, with caustic soda and calcined petroleum coke subject to significant price swings, some sourced from politically unstable countries.
3 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Commodity & input dependence
- aluminum and alumina priceshigh
Alcoa's results are driven by LME aluminum prices (averaging $2,614/t in 2025, +9% y/y), alumina prices and the US Midwest premium (up 211% on Canada tariffs); the highly cyclical aluminum market and Chinese supply add volatility.
“Aluminum prices increased 9 percent year over year with LME prices on a 15-day lag averaging $2,614 per metric ton in 2025. Additionally, the average Midwest premium increased 211 percent year over year largely in response to the tariff on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada, which were subject to a 25 percent tariff beginning March 12, 2025 until increasing to 50 percent on June 4, 2025 under U.S.”
- caustic soda and calcined petroleum cokemedium
Key refining/smelting raw materials such as caustic soda and calcined petroleum coke are subject to significant price volatility (and some sources sit in politically/economically unstable countries), which could disrupt supply or hurt results.
“Certain raw materials, such as caustic soda and calcined petroleum coke, may be subject to significant price volatility which could impact our financial results.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Regulatory & policy
- Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminumhigh
US Section 232 tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports rose from 10% to 25% (March 2025) then 50% (June 2025); Alcoa, which imports most of its Canadian-smelter aluminum into the US, incurred $571M of Section 232 tariff costs in 2025.
“On March 12, 2025, the U.S. government imposed a 25 percent tariff on certain aluminum imports from Canada under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232) which increased to a 50 percent tariff on June 4, 2025. Prior to March 12, 2025, the Section 232 tariff was 10 percent, and Canadian metal imported into the U.S. was exempted. Total Section 232 tariff costs in 2025 were $571.”
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its customers
“We rely on Alcoa for certain resources required to support daily operations at Warrick, including potable water.”
Cited →
Its suppliers
South32 Limited
“With respect to Rio Tinto and South32, the named company or an affiliate thereof holds the interest. The smelter and casthouse are owned by Alcoa Alumínio (60%) and South32 (40%).”
Cited →“Alcoa and Rio Tinto, as general partners, each own a 48.235 % stake in ELYSIS, and Investissement Québec, as a limited partner, owns a 3.53 % stake.”
Cited →
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