What Archer-Daniels-Midland Company told the SEC could break it.

ADM's biofuel economics depend on shifting U.S. policy — deferred Renewable Volume Obligations dampened feedstock demand, and the transition from the Blenders Tax Credit to the IRA's 45Z credit (with OBBBA changes) drives uncertain future benefits.

“For the year ended December 31, 2025, the Company did not generate significant 45Z credits. The Company estimates that the total benefits available under 45Z will be higher in future periods primarily due to changes enacted in the OBBBA. The BTC was previously the primary regulation, applicable to qualifying biodiesel. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 extended the BTC through December 31, 2024 and established the 45Z effective January 1, 2025, as discussed above. For the year ended December 31, 2024, the Company recorded benefits of $316 million related to the BTC.”

Tariffs and restrictive trade policies, including US-China soybean trade disruptions, impacted ADM's 2025 results and could limit market access or competitiveness of its products.

“the Company's results of operations were impacted by changes in and uncertainty relating to global trade and tariffs in 2025, and the resulting trade flow disruptions, such as U.S. soybean trade with China, as well as the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy with respect to renewable volume obligations (RVO), and the resulting uncertainty which impacted demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks.”

ADM's revenue, margins and working capital are directly driven by prices and volumes of oilseeds, corn, wheat and other grains, which fluctuate significantly and quickly.

“There is a degree of seasonality in the growing cycles, procurement, and transportation of the Company's principal raw materials: oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other grains. ... The prices of agricultural commodities, which may fluctuate significantly and change quickly, directly affect the Company's working capital requirements.”

ADM's assets/operations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict region face property-damage, inventory-loss, disruption and expropriation risk; the Black Sea is a major wheat/corn export hub whose disruption drives commodity volatility.

“For example, ADM's assets and operations located in the region affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are at an increased risk of property damage, inventory loss, business disruption, and expropriation. The Black Sea region is a major exporter of wheat and corn to the world, and the disruption of supply may continue to cause volatility in volumes, prices, and margins of these commodities and related products.”