What The Andersons, Inc. told the SEC could break it.

The Andersons' ethanol business is heavily dependent on federal biofuel policy. Demand is underpinned by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), under which much blending is done by adding ~10% ethanol to gasoline, and its economics now lean on the IRA's Section 45Z clean-fuel-production credit (up to $1/gallon, indexed, based on lifecycle emissions): it recognized $35.0 million of Section 45Z credits in 2025. Changes to RFS volume obligations/RIN values, small-refinery exemptions, or the scope/extension of the 45Z credit (and its lifecycle-emissions rules) would materially swing ethanol profitability. A specific, quantified, policy-dependent exposure central to the renewables segment.

“For the year ended December 31, 2025, the Company recognized $ 35.0 million of Section 45Z credits once there was reasonable assurance the conditions of the year-to-date credit conditions were satisfied.”

As a North American grain merchandiser, The Andersons is exposed to agricultural trade and farm policy. It flags that there could be trade restrictions, including export restrictions and tariffs, that would increase costs and adversely affect results, and that the markets and prices of the grains it merchandises are affected by U.S. government programs (USDA acreage-control and price-support programs). Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. corn/soybeans (e.g., by China), export bans, or shifts in farm-support policy directly move the grain flows and basis that drive its Agribusiness margins. A specific ag-trade/farm-policy exposure relevant to the supply-shock thesis.

The Andersons is fundamentally a commodity business — grain merchandising (corn, soybeans, wheat, oats) and ethanol production. Its Renewables segment's four ethanol plants (405M gal nameplate) consume corn as feedstock, and it states that high corn costs or shortages could require it to suspend ethanol operations until corn is available on economical terms. Across segments it manages commodity price risk with derivatives but cannot offset 100% of price risk (timing, futures availability, counterparty non-performance), and ethanol margins (board crush) are squeezed by corn basis and natural-gas cost. A core, multi-commodity dependence (corn/grains/ethanol/natural gas) that directly drives merchant and ethanol margins.

“High costs or shortages could require us to suspend ethanol operations until corn is available on economical terms, which would have an adverse impact on operating results.”

For many of its crop inputs — particularly fertilizer — The Andersons procures large volumes from a small number of suppliers, and it relies on a limited number of suppliers for certain raw materials and products such that the loss of one or several could increase costs and materially affect a business segment. Fertilizer/plant-nutrient supply is concentrated upstream (a handful of global producers), so a supplier failure, sanctions on producing regions, or feedstock (natural gas/ammonia) shocks could squeeze the nutrient business. A genuine supplier-concentration dependence on the fertilizer value chain.

“For many of our crop inputs, particularly fertilizer, we procure large volumes from a small number of suppliers and our purchasing power is important in our ability to deliver value to our customers.”