CF · CIK 1324404
What CF Industries Holdings, Inc. told the SEC could break it.
2 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
A limited set so far, we surface every cited disclosure we’ve extracted for CF. More may follow as additional filings are processed.
In its own words
What could break it.
Commodity & input dependence
- natural gas (≈34% of production costs; Henry Hub volatility)high
Natural gas is CF Industries' principal feedstock and fuel — ~34% of 2025 production costs — and the largest, most volatile cost component; with all ammonia plants in the US and Canada, North American gas prices (Henry Hub ranged $1.23–$12.97/MMBtu over 2023-2025) directly drive operating expense.
“Natural gas is the largest and most volatile component of the manufacturing cost for our nitrogen products, representing approximately 34% and 28%, respectively, of our production costs in 2025 and 2024. All of our ammonia manufacturing plants are located in the United States and Canada.”
Regulatory & policy
- IEEPA tariffs, SCOTUS ruling, 10% Feb-2026 tariff, steel/aluminum tariffs on capexmedium
US trade policy materially affects CF — fertilizer products (urea, UAN, AN) and USMCA-qualifying Canadian production were largely exempted from IEEPA tariffs; after the Feb 20, 2026 Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA, the president imposed a new 10% tariff (Feb 24, 2026) continuing those exemptions, while non-IEEPA steel/aluminum tariffs still raise the cost of capital equipment for the Blue Point build.
“On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, including IEEPA-based global tariffs and tariffs on imports from Canada. Invoking other legal authority, the president responded by imposing a 10% tariff on most products imported into the United States on or after February 24, 2026, which may run for up to 150 days absent further congressional extension.”
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its customers
CHS Inc.
“CHS was our largest customer in 2025 and accounted for approximately 13% of our consolidated net sales. We have a strategic venture with CHS under which CHS has a minority equity interest in CFN.”
Cited →
Its suppliers
JERA Co., Inc.
“On April 8, 2025, we formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. (JERA), Japan's largest energy company, and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Mitsui), a leading global investment and trading company, to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility at our Blue Point complex located in Modeste, Louisiana. We hold 40% ownership, JERA holds 35% ownership, and Mitsui holds 25% ownership in the Blue Point joint venture.”
Cited →Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
“On April 8, 2025, we formed the Blue Point joint venture with JERA Co., Inc. (JERA), Japan's largest energy company, and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (Mitsui), a leading global investment and trading company, to construct a low-carbon ammonia production facility at our Blue Point complex located in Modeste, Louisiana. We hold 40% ownership, JERA holds 35% ownership, and Mitsui holds 25% ownership in the Blue Point joint venture.”
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