What Carpenter Technology Corporation told the SEC could break it.

Carpenter's specialty-alloy production depends on critical raw materials — nickel, cobalt, chromium, manganese, molybdenum, titanium, iron and alloy scrap — many from international sources subject to supply interruption from political events or labor unrest (cost changes are largely passed through via surcharge mechanisms).

“Our business depends on continued receipt of critical raw materials for our day to day operations. These raw materials include nickel, cobalt, chromium, manganese, molybdenum, titanium, iron and scrap containing the named alloys. Some of the sources of these raw materials, many of which are international, could be subject to potential interruptions of supply as a result of political events, labor unrest or other reasons.”

Carpenter's revenue is concentrated in the Aerospace & Defense end-use market ($1,768.6M in fiscal 2025, the large majority of ex-surcharge sales), tying results to aircraft build rates and defense demand cycles.

“Sales to the Aerospace and Defense end-use market increased 15 percent from fiscal year 2024 to $1,768.6 million. Excluding surcharge revenue, sales increased 20 percent. The fiscal year 2025 results reflect double-digit increases in the Aerospace engine and fastener sub-markets driven by the need to maintain and replace aging fleets compared to fiscal year 2024.”

Emerging US/international trade-policy changes — new import/export tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, quotas, sanctions and embargoes — could adversely affect Carpenter's business or force supply-chain changes, though it expects to pass incremental tariff costs through its surcharge mechanisms.

“Significant changes to United States and international trade policies continue to emerge and activity levels have increased with regard to new import and export tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and quotas; modifications to international trade policy; the withdrawal from or renegotiation of certain trade agreements; and other changes. These changes, including any implementation of or changes in trade sanctions, tariffs and embargoes, could materially adversely impact our business or require us to make changes to our current business practices or supply chain.”