DE · CIK 315189
What Deere & Company told the SEC could break it.
Deere's biggest flag is trade policy: new 2025 U.S. tariffs raised its product and component costs by a direct incremental ~$600 million, and because nearly 80% of domestic sales are U.S.-assembled with the rest imported from Europe, Mexico, India and Japan, it is also exposed to retaliatory tariffs on its exports. That sits alongside material-supply concentration — its motors, batteries and other components depend on rare earth minerals, a significant majority sourced from China, where an inability to secure export permits could disrupt production, and it relies on single-source or proprietary suppliers that can't be replaced quickly. Demand adds a further commodity link, since the biofuel feedstock appetite that drives crop and equipment sales weakens as oil prices fall.
4 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Commodity & input dependence
- rare earth minerals for motors/batteries/components — majority sourced from China; export-permit riskmedium
Certain Deere products — including motors, batteries and other components — rely on rare earth minerals, a significant majority of which are sourced from China; inability to obtain export permits for rare earth minerals could detrimentally affect the business and significantly raise production/logistics and R&D (alternative-design) costs.
“certain of our products, including motors, batteries, and other components, rely on rare earth minerals for their manufacturing, of which a significant majority are sourced from China. The inability to obtain export permits for rare earth minerals could have a detrimental effect on our business.”
- biofuel-driven crop/equipment demand sensitive to oil priceslow
Demand for Deere's agricultural equipment is partly tied to biofuel feedstock demand (corn in U.S./Europe, sugar cane in Brazil), but biofuels' economic feasibility falls as oil prices fall — creating uncertainty over the benefits of Deere's renewable-energy-linked investments.
“the economic feasibility of biofuels can be impacted by the price of oil. As the price of oil falls, biofuels become a less attractive alternative energy source, and as a result, there is uncertainty with respect to any benefits we may realize with respect to our investments related to renewable energy.”
Regulatory & policy
- import tariffs — ~$600M direct 2025 impact; ~80% domestic sales US-assembled, rest imported from Europe/Mexico/India/Japanhigh
New 2025 U.S. tariffs on imports from a broad range of countries adversely affected Deere's product/component costs, with a direct incremental tariff impact of ~$600 million in 2025 (excluding supplier and demand effects); nearly 80% of domestic sales are U.S.-assembled with the rest imported from Europe, Mexico, India and Japan, and retaliatory tariffs may hit its exports.
“The direct impact of incremental tariffs incurred by us in 2025 was approximately $600, excluding the impact of tariffs on our suppliers and market demand.”
Sole-source dependency
- single-source/proprietary suppliers and supplier union strikesmedium
Disruptions in the supply of parts, components and whole goods could impair Deere's ability to meet customer commitments — including from reliance on single-source or proprietary suppliers that cannot be replaced expeditiously, and work interruptions or union strikes by suppliers' employees.
“reliance on single source suppliers, or suppliers that are proprietary in nature that cannot be replaced expeditiously”
SEC filing →As of 2025
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its customers
Its suppliers
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
“For example, we provide John Deere, a leading customer with 2024 net sales accounting for 11.3% of our total revenue, with over 5,000 SKUs across over 65 individual John Deere platforms including the agriculture, forestry, turf care, power systems and construction & access equipment end markets.”
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