HOG · CIK 793952
What Harley-Davidson, Inc. told the SEC could break it.
Harley-Davidson's register is dominated by trade policy. Tariffs hit it from both directions: a 50% duty on the steel and aluminum its motorcycles are built from added $31 million in 2025, and a broader span of import tariffs across China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, India and Thailand brought the total tariff cost to $67 million in 2025, with $75–105 million estimated for 2026. On the export side, EU 'rebalancing' tariffs have specifically targeted its U.S.-made motorcycles — once raising the bloc's duty to 31% — with the suspension extended only six months at a time. Underneath the trade exposure sit narrower supply risks: reliance in some cases on a single supplier or contract manufacturer, and electric balance bikes for its STACYC line sourced from partners in Taiwan and China.
5 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Regulatory & policy
- multi-country import tariffs ($67M 2025; $75-105M est. 2026)medium
New/increased tariffs across China, Mexico, Canada, EU, India, Thailand, and steel/aluminum cost the company $67M in 2025 and an estimated $75-105M in 2026, raising the cost of raw materials, components, and motorcycles.
“The impacts of new or increased tariffs to the Company for the full year 2025 and the Company's expectations for 2026 (1) as of February 8, 2026 are as follows (dollars in millions): Tariff 2025 Impact (a) 2026 Estimate (a) China 20% $6 $10 - $15 Mexico 25% 1 — Canada 35% 8 — EU 15% 2 $0 - $5 India 18% 2 $5 - $10 Thailand 19% 6 $20 - $25 Rest of world 10% - 50% 11 $25 - $30 Steel and aluminum 50% 31 $15 - $20 Total $67 $75 - $105”
- EU rebalancing tariffs targeting U.S.-made motorcycles (31% / 6%)medium
EU retaliatory 'rebalancing' tariffs specifically targeted non-electric motorcycles, raising total EU duty on H-D motorcycles to 31% (later reduced to 6%); the 25% rebalancing suspension was extended for six months on Aug 5, 2025 and its future remains uncertain.
“The EU suspended the 25% rebalancing tariffs in October 2021 pending ongoing negotiations with the U.S., and this suspension was further extended for six months on August 5, 2025.”
Commodity & input dependence
- steel and aluminum (motorcycle raw materials)medium
Motorcycle production depends on steel and aluminum; a 50% tariff on these materials contributed $31M of tariff cost in 2025, and raw-material prices fluctuate with commodity markets, FX, and trade policy.
“New or increased tariffs are expected to negatively impact the Company's ability to sell products domestically and internationally at or near current prices as tariffs impact the cost of raw materials, components and motorcycles.”
Sole-source dependency
- single supplier / single contract manufacturer for certain components and productsmedium
In certain cases Harley-Davidson relies on a single supplier for component parts or a single contract manufacturer for certain components/products; disruption of these relationships could halt the production schedule.
“In certain circumstances, the Company relies on a single supplier to provide component parts or a contract manufacturer to manufacture certain components and/or products, and a change or disruption in these established relationships may cause disruption in the Company's production schedule.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Geographic concentration
- STACYC electric balance-bike contract manufacturing in Taiwan and Chinalow
STACYC sources its electric balance bikes through contract manufacturing from strategic partners and bike assemblers located in Taiwan and China, concentrating that segment's supply in Asia.
“STACYC purchases electric balance bikes through contract manufacturing agreements from strategic partners and bike assemblers located in Taiwan and China.”
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its customers
“electric motorcycles and related products to independent H-D dealers in the U.S. and Canada are financed by the purchasing independent H-D dealers through Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. (“HDFS”), a wholly owned subsidiary of H-D.”
Cited →
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against the companies you actually own.
← World Watch