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LUNR · CIK 0001844452

What Intuitive Machines, Inc. told the SEC could break it.

Intuitive Machines is bound almost entirely to a single customer: about 78% of its 2025 revenue (90% in 2024) came from the U.S. government, principally NASA, so a delay, descope or termination by that one customer would hit it disproportionately, and its growth explicitly depends on winning more government contracts. That ties it directly to federal budget policy — its revenue rides on Congressional appropriations and NASA program funding, a risk that already materialized when NASA cancelled the OSAM task orders and cut roughly $71.9 million of revenue. Its missions also carry single points of failure on the supply side: it relies on a single launch service provider and on a limited number of single- or sole-source suppliers for certain components, where a shortfall could delay or scrub schedule-critical lunar missions.

3 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings — each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.

In its own words

What could break it.

Customer concentration

  • ~78% of 2025 revenue (90% in 2024) from one major customer — the U.S. government, principally NASAhigh

    Intuitive Machines has extreme single-customer concentration: approximately 78% of 2025 revenue (90% in 2024) came from one major customer — the U.S. government, principally NASA (via CLPS lunar-lander missions, NSN/Near Space Network, OMES and related contracts). A default, delay, descoping, change in ordering/strategy, or contract termination by NASA would have an outsized impact, and the business's growth explicitly depends on winning additional government contracts in 2026 and beyond. A textbook government-payor/single-customer concentration of the highest order.

    For the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, approximately 78% and 90% of our revenues, respectively, came from one major customer.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Regulatory & policy

  • U.S. government-contracting regime and NASA budget/appropriations risk — CAS/DCAA/DCMA compliance, export/ITAR, government shutdowns, and discretionary task-order cancellations (e.g., OSAM)medium

    Because it contracts principally with NASA and other U.S. government agencies, Intuitive Machines is exposed to federal budget and contracting policy: its revenue depends on Congressional appropriations and NASA program funding, and government shutdowns or funding lapses could harm results. This risk has already materialized — NASA cancelled the OSAM project task orders, cutting revenue by ~$71.9 million. It must also comply with the government-contracting regime (Cost Accounting Standards, DCAA/DCMA audits, FAR cost-disclosure rules) and with export/import control, economic sanctions, and FAA/FCC/DOT licensing. Adverse changes in NASA's budget, program priorities, or contract terms — or a compliance failure — could materially affect the business. A specific government-policy/appropriations and contracting-compliance exposure.

    We contract with U.S. government agencies and entities, principally NASA

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Supplier concentration

  • Single launch service provider for lunar missions; single/sole-source suppliers for certain raw materials and components (esp. satellite integrated build)medium

    Intuitive Machines relies on a single launch service provider for its lunar missions, and on a limited number of suppliers — many on a single- or sole-source basis, particularly in its satellite integrated-build capability — for certain raw materials, supplied components and product-equipment items. Inability to secure launch capacity or critical components on time or on favorable terms could delay or scrub missions, impair order fulfillment, raise costs, or trigger contract penalties/terminations. For a company whose revenue rides on a small number of high-stakes, schedule-critical lunar missions, these sole-source dependencies (launch + components) are a material single-point-of-failure exposure.

    we currently rely on a single launch service provider for our lunar missions.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

The hidden graph

Who it depends on, and who depends on it.

Relationships surfaced from filings — including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.

Its customers

  • KBR, Inc.

    The Company recognized affiliate revenue from KBR related to engineering services of $ 1.8 million and $ 2.1 million for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.

    Cited →

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