LUNR · CIK 0001844452
What Intuitive Machines, Inc. told the SEC could break it.
Intuitive Machines is bound almost entirely to a single customer: about 78% of its 2025 revenue (90% in 2024) came from the U.S. government, principally NASA, so a delay, descope or termination by that one customer would hit it disproportionately, and its growth explicitly depends on winning more government contracts. That ties it directly to federal budget policy — its revenue rides on Congressional appropriations and NASA program funding, a risk that already materialized when NASA cancelled the OSAM task orders and cut roughly $71.9 million of revenue. Its missions also carry single points of failure on the supply side: it relies on a single launch service provider and on a limited number of single- or sole-source suppliers for certain components, where a shortfall could delay or scrub schedule-critical lunar missions.
3 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Customer concentration
- ~78% of 2025 revenue (90% in 2024) from one major customer — the U.S. government, principally NASAhigh
Intuitive Machines has extreme single-customer concentration: approximately 78% of 2025 revenue (90% in 2024) came from one major customer — the U.S. government, principally NASA (via CLPS lunar-lander missions, NSN/Near Space Network, OMES and related contracts). A default, delay, descoping, change in ordering/strategy, or contract termination by NASA would have an outsized impact, and the business's growth explicitly depends on winning additional government contracts in 2026 and beyond. A textbook government-payor/single-customer concentration of the highest order.
“For the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, approximately 78% and 90% of our revenues, respectively, came from one major customer.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Regulatory & policy
- U.S. government-contracting regime and NASA budget/appropriations risk — CAS/DCAA/DCMA compliance, export/ITAR, government shutdowns, and discretionary task-order cancellations (e.g., OSAM)medium
Because it contracts principally with NASA and other U.S. government agencies, Intuitive Machines is exposed to federal budget and contracting policy: its revenue depends on Congressional appropriations and NASA program funding, and government shutdowns or funding lapses could harm results. This risk has already materialized — NASA cancelled the OSAM project task orders, cutting revenue by ~$71.9 million. It must also comply with the government-contracting regime (Cost Accounting Standards, DCAA/DCMA audits, FAR cost-disclosure rules) and with export/import control, economic sanctions, and FAA/FCC/DOT licensing. Adverse changes in NASA's budget, program priorities, or contract terms — or a compliance failure — could materially affect the business. A specific government-policy/appropriations and contracting-compliance exposure.
“We contract with U.S. government agencies and entities, principally NASA”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Supplier concentration
- Single launch service provider for lunar missions; single/sole-source suppliers for certain raw materials and components (esp. satellite integrated build)medium
Intuitive Machines relies on a single launch service provider for its lunar missions, and on a limited number of suppliers — many on a single- or sole-source basis, particularly in its satellite integrated-build capability — for certain raw materials, supplied components and product-equipment items. Inability to secure launch capacity or critical components on time or on favorable terms could delay or scrub missions, impair order fulfillment, raise costs, or trigger contract penalties/terminations. For a company whose revenue rides on a small number of high-stakes, schedule-critical lunar missions, these sole-source dependencies (launch + components) are a material single-point-of-failure exposure.
“we currently rely on a single launch service provider for our lunar missions.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against the companies you actually own.
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