MOH · CIK 0001179929
What Molina Healthcare, Inc. told the SEC could break it.
Molina's disclosures center on its dependence on government health programs. Medicaid was 75% of consolidated premium revenue, and that book is concentrated in a few state contracts — its top four plans (California, New York, Texas and Washington) totaled $17.3 billion, about 54% of Medicaid premium — all periodically rebid, so losing one would be material. Its $4.5 billion Marketplace segment faces a policy cliff: the enhanced ACA premium tax credits that underpin it were set to expire December 31, 2025, and their lapse could cut enrollment and premium revenue. Medicaid results are also pressured as state rate updates lag rising cost trends with limited risk-corridor protection, and its Long Beach, California headquarters and some claims processing sit in an earthquake- and wildfire-prone region.
4 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Regulatory & policy
- expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits (Dec 31, 2025)high
The enhanced ACA premium tax credits (extended by the IRA through Dec 31, 2025) underpin Molina's $4.5B Marketplace segment; their expiration could reduce Marketplace enrollment and premium revenue.
“The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 extended the enhanced ACA subsidies for individuals enrolled in ACA-qualified health plans through December 31, 2025. Our business could be impacted by additional, future changes to the ACA, as discussed below.”
SEC filing →As of 2026 - Medicaid rate adequacy / redeterminationsmedium
Molina's Medicaid results are pressured as state rate updates lag increased cost trends and risk-corridor protection is now limited, with membership also reduced by post-pandemic redeterminations.
“Results will continue to be challenged, as state rate updates continue to lag increased cost trends and risk corridor protection is now limited.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Customer concentration
- four state Medicaid contracts (CA, NY, TX, WA) = 54% of Medicaid premiumhigh
Molina's revenue is concentrated in a few state Medicaid contracts — CA, NY, TX and WA each were ~10%+ of consolidated Medicaid premium and together $17.3B (~54%); Medicaid overall was 75% of consolidated premium revenue, and these government contracts are periodically rebid.
“Measured by Medicaid premium revenue by health plan, our top four health plans were in California, New York, Texas, and Washington, with aggregate Medicaid premium revenue of $17.3 billion, or approximately 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue, in the year ended December 31, 2025.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Climate & physical
- Long Beach, CA HQ & claims processing earthquake/wildfire exposuremedium
Molina's corporate headquarters and some of its health plans' claims processing are in Long Beach, California, a region with a statistically greater risk of major earthquakes and wildfires that could disrupt operations.
“Because our corporate headquarters are located in Southern California, our business operations may be disrupted as a result of a major earthquake or wildfire. Our corporate headquarters are located in Long Beach, California. In addition, some of our health plans' claims are processed in Long Beach, California. Southern California is exposed to a statistically greater risk of a major earthquake and wildfires than most other parts of the United States.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its suppliers
“Molina Healthcare, Inc. 25.7% 13.7% 13.5%”
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