NEM · CIK 1164727
What Newmont Corporation told the SEC could break it.
Newmont's results turn on metal prices and the sovereign jurisdictions where it mines. Its earnings depend on gold and copper prices, with provisional concentrate sales carrying an embedded derivative marked to market each period, and it is exposed to escalating diesel and natural-gas costs, including a specific concern over Northern Territory gas supply for its Tanami operation. Across its many jurisdictions it faces resource-nationalism in the form of tax increases and royalty changes — Ghana, for instance, moved to a fixed 5% gold royalty effective January 2026 — and in Argentina, central-bank currency controls force it to convert USD metal-sale proceeds to pesos and restrict repatriating cash from its Cerro Negro operation.
4 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Commodity & input dependence
- gold/copper price exposure incl. provisional concentrate sales with embedded pricing derivativemedium
Newmont's results depend on gold and copper prices (copper reserves estimated at $3.75/lb); provisional concentrate sales contain an embedded derivative marked to market through earnings each period until final settlement at index prices, adding price volatility to net income.
“The embedded derivative, which is not designated for hedge accounting, is marked to market through earnings each period prior to final settlement. We perform an analysis on the provisional concentrate sales to determine the potential impact to Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders for each 10% change to the average price on the provisional concentrate sales”
- energy price/supply exposure — diesel, natural gas (Tanami NT gas supply concern)low
Newmont is exposed to sharply escalating diesel, natural gas and other energy prices; a reduction in Northern Territory natural-gas production is a specific concern for Tanami's short-term energy prices, and energy-supply restrictions or conflicting regulations could raise costs and impede emissions-reduction targets.
“arply escalating diesel fuel, natural gas and other energy prices. A reduction in Northern Territory natural gas production is a specific concern for Tanami's short-term energy prices.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Regulatory & policy
- Argentina foreign-currency controls — forced USD→peso conversion of metal-sale proceeds, repatriation restrictionsmedium
Argentina's central bank has enacted foreign-currency controls — requiring Newmont to convert USD proceeds from metal sales to local currency and restricting foreign-currency payments to related entities such as dividends/distributions to the parent — limiting Newmont's ability to repatriate cash from its Cerro Negro operation.
“Argentina's central bank has enacted a number of foreign currency controls in an effort to stabilize the local currency, including requiring the Company to convert USD proceeds from metal sales to local currency and restricting payments to foreign-related entities denominated in foreign currency, such as dividends or distributions to the parent and related companies.”
- resource-nationalism / sovereign tax & royalty changes across 10+ jurisdictions (Ghana fixed 5% gold royalty from 2026)medium
Newmont faces tax increases, royalty changes and government claims across Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Ghana, PNG, Peru, Suriname, Colorado and Nevada; e.g., Ghana's sliding-scale gold royalty expired Dec 31, 2025 and transitioned to a fixed 5% rate (plus 0.6% forest-reserve royalty) effective Jan 1, 2026, with import customs duties of 5%-20% on mining goods.
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its suppliers
Barrick Mining (Barrick Gold Corporation)
“On July 1, 2019, Newmont and Barrick consummated the Nevada JV Agreement, which combined the Company's Nevada mining operations with Barrick's Nevada mining operations resulting in the establishment of NGM, a joint venture with Barrick, who is the operator”
Cited →“located in the Atacama Region of Chile. Joint venture with Teck Resources Limited that is jointly operated and accounted for as an equity method investment. Open pit mine and is a porphyry copper gold deposit.”
Cited →Imperial Metals Corporation (Red Chris Development Company Ltd.)
“Red Chris is 70% owned by Newcrest Red Chris Mining Limited, a Newmont subsidiary, and 30% owned by Red Chris Development Company Ltd., an Imperial Metals subsidiary, and is accounted for under proportionate consolidation.”
Cited →
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