NOC · CIK 1133421
What Northrop Grumman Corporation told the SEC could break it.
Northrop Grumman's register is dominated by its dependence on one customer: sales to the U.S. government were about 84% of 2025 revenue ($35.2 billion of $42.0 billion), with every segment substantially government-dependent, so its results ride on U.S. defense budgets and appropriations — and on the government's ability to terminate contracts for convenience or default, issue stop-work orders, and shift development-cost risk onto it through non-FAR contracting models. On the supply side it warns its production would be significantly hurt if the microelectronics supply chain were cut off, a risk heightened for single or sole-source components, and for government contracts it must use customer-approved suppliers. It is also exposed to tariffs and commodity and inflation pressure on fixed-price programs, partly mitigated by hedging and economic-price-adjustment clauses.
4 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Regulatory & policy
- tariffs + commodity/inflation price risk on fixed-price programs (mitigated by EPA clauses / NTE pricing)medium
Northrop's business is exposed to the extent/duration of tariffs (and target-country responses / resulting inflation), and to commodity-price and inflationary pressure on fixed-price programs; it mitigates via FX/interest/commodity hedging, economic-price-adjustment clauses, REAs/ECPs and not-to-exceed pricing (e.g., on additional B-21 lots), but mitigation may not succeed.
“We work proactively to mitigate the challenges caused by the macroeconomic environment, including, in some cases, hedging foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity price risk, and seeking the inclusion of economic price adjustment clauses or seeking to recover on REAs, ECPs or other claims, but the impacts of these challenges are uncertain”
- U.S.-government contract termination-for-convenience / stop-work risk + OTA/alternative contracting cost-shiftmedium
The U.S. government can terminate contracts for convenience or default and issue stop-work orders (recovering only costs incurred plus reasonable fee, not anticipated profit; stoppages introduce inefficiencies/damages); alternative contracting models including non-FAR-based OTA awards can place greater development-cost and limited-reimbursement risk on Northrop and offer more limited protest rights.
Customer concentration
- U.S. government ~84% of sales ($35.2B of $42.0B); each segment substantially government-dependenthigh
Sales to the U.S. government (prime and subcontractor where the ultimate customer is the U.S. government, including FMS) were ~84% of Northrop Grumman's 2025 sales ($35.2B of $42.0B total), and each segment derives a substantial percentage of revenue from the U.S. government — concentrating results in U.S. defense budgets and appropriations.
“Total U.S. government (1) 35,183 84 % 35,436 87 % 33,882 86 %”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Sole-source dependency
- single/sole-source suppliers (incl. microelectronics supply-chain cutoff) + customer-approved/restricted supply sourceshigh
Northrop's production could be significantly impacted if the microelectronics manufacturing supply chain is cut off, limited or delayed — heightened for single/sole-source products (sometimes only one, or one domestic, supplier); for U.S. government contracts it must procure certain raw materials/chemicals/components/parts from customer-approved sources and is restricted from others, and qualifying new suppliers is slow.
“Our ability to produce and/or deliver products will be significantly impacted if the microelectronics manufacturing supply chain is cut off or significantly limited or delayed. This risk is increased for products and services that are single or sole source. For example, for some components, we may have had, or have, only one supplier, or one domestic supplier, that meets our needs.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its suppliers
“Northrop Grumman accounted for less than 10% of our revenues in fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2024, and comprised 11% in fiscal year 2023.”
Cited →“Our top customers include BAE Systems, KORD Technologies, Mazak, Northrop Grumman, QinetiQ Limited, Raytheon Technologies, and the U.S. Government.”
Cited →“During fiscal year 2025, only Northrop Grumman accounted for more than 10% of the Company's consolidated revenues; however, the Company has other large customers that it relies on for significant portions of its consolidated revenues.”
Cited →
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