What Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. told the SEC could break it.

Northern Oil & Gas's revenue is derived almost entirely from its interests in oil and natural gas sales, so results rise and fall with NYMEX WTI crude and Henry Hub gas benchmark prices, and are further affected by basin price differentials between those benchmarks and the prices it actually realizes (its 2025 average oil differential to WTI widened to $5.53/bbl from $3.88/bbl in 2024, and realized gas was only ~79% of Henry Hub). SEC proved reserves were valued at just $59.72/bbl and $3.18/Mcf. A sustained drop in crude/gas prices or a widening of differentials would directly reduce revenue, reserve values and the economic inventory operators choose to drill. The dominant commodity-price demand/supply-shock channel.

“Our average oil price differential to the NYMEX WTI benchmark price during 2025 was $5.53 per barrel, as compared to $3.88 per barrel in 2024.”

Northern Oil & Gas owns only non-operated working interests, so it relies entirely on third-party operators to drill, complete and produce the wells in which it participates — and it has no ability to influence those operators' operational decisions (timing, capital, pace). That dependence is concentrated: its top six operators accounted for 53% of total oil and natural gas sales in 2025 (53% in 2024, 55% in 2023). A reduction in drilling activity, operational failure, financial distress, or strategy change at a top operator would directly cut NOG's production and cash flow, with no operatorship lever to respond. A distinctive operator-execution concentration that functions as a single-source-style supply dependence; operators are not named here, so it registers as a risk rather than edges.

“the Company's top six operators made up 53 %, 53 % and 55 %, respectively, of total oil and natural gas sales.”

Northern Oil & Gas concentrates its interests in a limited number of U.S. basins, so substantially all of its oil and natural gas revenue is sourced from a few geographic areas of operations — the Williston, Permian, Appalachian and Uinta basins (Q4 2025 production was ~42% Permian, 30% Williston, 21% Appalachian, 7% Uinta; all proved reserves are in the U.S.). This leaves it disproportionately exposed to anything affecting one or more of those areas: basin-specific takeaway/pipeline constraints, regional regulation, weather, or differential blowouts. A multi-basin but still concentrated geographic exposure.

“The Company faces concentration risk due to the fact that substantially all of its oil and natural gas revenue is sourced from a limited number of geographic areas of operations.”