OSK · CIK 775158
What Oshkosh Corporation told the SEC could break it.
Oshkosh's disclosures center on a heavy-vehicle maker exposed to government demand and trade policy. Roughly 20% of its 2025 net sales came from the U.S. Government — the Defense Department, the Postal Service and foreign military sales — concentrating revenue in federal programs subject to budget and contracting risk. Trade policy is a large and rising cost: it estimates tariffs of about $200 million in 2026, up roughly $165 million from 2025, on top of exposure to steel, aluminum and composite input prices, and it flags China's export controls on rare earth minerals — used directly or through its suppliers — as a supply-chain risk to its results.
4 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Regulatory & policy
- U.S. import tariffs — ~$200M cost in 2026 (+$165M YoY)high
Oshkosh estimates tariffs will total approximately $200 million in 2026, up roughly $165 million from 2025, a large policy-driven cost increase the company seeks to offset through pricing.
“The Company's estimates assume that present levels of tariff rates continue. The Company estimates tariffs will total approximately $200 million in 2026, which is an increase of approximately $165 million from 2025.”
- China rare-earth mineral export controls on Oshkosh's supply chainmedium
Oshkosh flags that China's export-control requirements on materials such as rare earth minerals — used directly or via its suppliers — could materially affect its competitive position and results, a supply-chain chokepoint exposure.
“Changes in laws or regulations governing foreign trade, particularly in countries where we manufacture products or from which we import products or raw materials, either directly or through our suppliers, including materials subject to China's export control requirements such as rare earth minerals, could have a material adverse effect on our competitive position, results of operations, financial condition, and/or cash flows.”
Customer concentration
- U.S. Government ~20% of sales (DoD $1.26B, USPS, foreign military sales)high
Oshkosh derives roughly 20% of net sales from the U.S. Government — DoD ($1.26B), USPS ($468.7M) and foreign military sales ($353.5M) in 2025 — concentrating revenue (DoD alone ~13%) in federal defense and postal programs and exposing it to budget and contracting risk.
“The Company derived a significant portion of its revenue from the U.S. Government, as follows (in millions): Year Ended December 31, 2025 2024 2023 DoD $ 1,262.6 $ 1,862.2 $ 1,664.8 USPS 468.7 103.7 — Foreign military sales 353.5 163.0 156.6 Total U.S. Government $ 2,084.8 $ 2,128.9 $ 1,821.4 No other customer represented more than 10% of sales.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Commodity & input dependence
- steel, aluminum and composites input costsmedium
As a heavy-vehicle manufacturer, Oshkosh purchases steel, aluminum and composites and is exposed to commodity price increases (including tariff-driven) that can compress margins where it lacks firm supplier pricing.
“Commodity Price Risk. The Company is a purchaser of certain commodities, including steel, aluminum and composites.”
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