What Starbucks Corporation told the SEC could break it.

Commodity price risk is Starbucks' primary market risk, driven by green-coffee (high-quality arabica) and dairy purchases; price volatility is amplified by climate change (Brazil droughts/frosts), speculative trading, organization-driven price actions and tariffs, with limited ability to fully hedge — rising costs or shortages could materially impact profitability.

“Climate change may intensify these risks—for example, droughts or frosts in Brazil have in the past driven price increases. Speculative trading also contributes to volatility. Tariffs have also affected, and in the future may affect, our costs to procure coffee. Given coffee's central role in our operations and our limited ability to fully hedge against price increases, rising costs or supply shortages could materially impact our profitability”

Starbucks depends on its relationships with coffee producers, outside trading companies and exporters for its supply of green coffee, relying on fixed-price/price-to-be-fixed purchase commitments (expected to cover supply through fiscal 2026) and operating farmer support centers to secure future high-quality supply.

“We depend upon our relationships with coffee producers, outside trading companies, and exporters for our supply of green coffee.”

Starbucks' retail licensed operations are concentrated among a few large licensees whose inability to access capital or meet store development/renovation targets could hurt key markets; separately, if Nestlé fails to meet its Global Coffee Alliance obligations or support the brand, it could materially impact Channel Development.

“our retail licensed operations are concentrated among a few large licensees, and their inability to access capital or grow effectively, including their inability to meet store development and renovation targets, could adversely affect performance in key markets.”

Starbucks' global business faces protectionist trade or foreign-investment policies (tariffs, import/export regulations), economic/trade sanctions, local-law compliance and labor conditions (strikes/work stoppages); China exposure is significant (Boyu JV) and new U.S. tariffs and dynamic coffee prices are expected to keep pressuring results.

“protectionist trade or foreign investment policies, such as tariffs and import/export regulations, economic or trade sanctions, compliance with local laws and other regulations, and local labor policies and conditions, including labor strikes and work stoppages”