SNCY · CIK 0001743907
What Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. told the SEC could break it.
Sun Country's two heaviest exposures are the classic ones for an airline, sharpened by how concentrated it is. Jet fuel was about 21% of its 2025 operating costs, leaving results exposed to volatile, geopolitically driven crude and fuel prices; and its network is built almost entirely around one hub, with roughly 93% of 2025 scheduled capacity touching Minneapolis-St. Paul, which ties it to that region's winter weather and local economy. Layered on top are company-specific concentrations: a pending merger with Allegiant that would delist its stock (and carries a $33.0 million termination fee), a workforce about 66% unionized with an unresolved technicians' contract, and a Cargo segment flown exclusively for Amazon that would disappear if that agreement were lost.
5 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings, each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Other disclosures
- pending Allegiant mergermedium
Sun Country has a pending merger with Allegiant (expected to close H2 2026, after which its stock would be delisted); a termination could require Sun Country to pay Allegiant a $33.0M fee or up to $11.0M expense reimbursement, harming liquidity.
“we may be required to pay Allegiant a termination fee of $33,020 or expense reimbursement of up to $11,000 in connection with the termination of the Merger Agreement.”
SEC filing →As of 2026 - labor / unionized workforcemedium
About 66% of Sun Country's employees are represented by labor unions, and an initial CBA with AMFA-organized technicians (negotiations since October 2022) remained unresolved — creating labor-cost and operational-disruption risk.
“As of December 31, 2025, approximately 66% of our employees were represented by labor unions as set forth in the table below.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Commodity & input dependence
- jet fuel / crude oilhigh
Aircraft fuel is one of Sun Country's largest expenses (~21% of total operating costs in 2025); volatile jet-fuel/crude-oil prices, driven by geopolitical and supply factors, could materially affect results.
“Aircraft fuel is one of our largest individual expenses, representing approximately 21% and 24% of our total operating costs for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The price and availability of jet fuel are volatile due to global economic and geopolitical factors as well as domestic and local supply factors.”
Geographic concentration
- Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) hubhigh
Sun Country is heavily concentrated at its MSP hub — ~93% of 2025 scheduled-service capacity (ASMs) originated or terminated at MSP — exposing it to Minneapolis-area weather (especially winter) and local economic shocks.
“We maintain a large presence in MSP. For example, approximately 93% of 2025 Scheduled Service capacity, as measured by ASMs, had MSP as either their origin or destination.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Customer concentration
- Amazon ATSA = entire Cargo segmentlow
Sun Country's Cargo segment (~$155M, ~14% of 2025 revenue) is operated exclusively for Amazon under the A&R Air Transportation Services Agreement; loss or non-renewal of the Amazon ATSA would eliminate the entire Cargo business.
“Freighters" include the aircraft operated under the A&R ATSA, which are configured exclusively for Cargo operations.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings, including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its customers
“A portion of the 2019 Warrants will vest incrementally based on aggregate global payments by Amazon to the Company or its affiliates pursuant under both the original and A&R ATSA.”
Cited →
Its suppliers
Amadeus IT Group SA
“Our movement in and out of markets where we may not have an established brand presence, is facilitated by the availability of our inventory through GDS companies (e.g., Amadeus and Sabre).”
Cited →“Our movement in and out of markets where we may not have an established brand presence, is facilitated by the availability of our inventory through GDS companies (e.g., Amadeus and Sabre).”
Cited →
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