UNP · CIK 100885
What Union Pacific Corporation told the SEC could break it.
Even though Union Pacific runs a domestic rail network, much of what it flagged is about trade and tariffs. A significant share of its freight moves commodities to and from international markets — Mexico-related traffic alone was about $2.9 billion of revenue in 2025 — and tariff uncertainty in the first half of 2025 already cut automotive shipments 4% and iron-ore volumes while adding to its material costs. The rest of its register is the steadier stuff of railroading: a freight mix across bulk, industrial and premium commodities whose pricing and fuel surcharges (which lag fuel prices by about two months) drive revenue per car, plus long-tail environmental remediation liability at Superfund and state-listed sites across the U.S.
4 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings — each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.
In its own words
What could break it.
Geographic concentration
- international freight to/from Mexico, Canada, Southeast Asia; Mexico ~$2.9B of revenuemedium
Although revenues come from U.S. transportation services, a significant portion involves moving commodities to and from international markets — including Mexico, Canada and Southeast Asia; Mexico-related freight revenue was ~$2.9 billion in 2025 (down 1%), exposing UP to cross-border trade and tariff dynamics.
“a significant portion of our revenues involves the transportation of commodities to and from international markets, including Mexico, Canada, and Southeast Asia”
Regulatory & policy
- tariff uncertainty reduced automotive (-4%) and iron-ore volumes; tariff-related material cost inflationmedium
Tariff uncertainties in the first half of 2025 reduced UP's automotive shipments (down 4%, with softer manufacturer production) and iron-ore carloads, and tariff-related material expenses contributed to a 4% rise in purchased services and materials costs.
“Automotive shipments were down 4% year-over-year due to tariff uncertainties in the first half of 2025 and reduced manufacturer production from softer consumer demand.”
Commodity & input dependence
- commodity-mix and fuel-surcharge sensitivity (coal, grain, chemicals; fuel lags ~2 months)low
UP's freight revenue depends on its three commodity groups (Bulk ~33%, Industrial, Premium) and average revenue per car driven by price/mix/fuel surcharges; fuel-surcharge revenue trails fuel-price moves by ~two months, and lower fuel surcharges and commodity-mix shifts pressured 2025 ARC.
“In 2025, we generated freight revenues totaling $23.2 billion from the following three commodity groups”
SEC filing →As of 2026
Litigation
- environmental remediation liability (Superfund/CERCLA, EPA and state notices)low
Union Pacific receives notices from the EPA and state environmental agencies alleging actual or potential liability for remediation costs at various U.S. sites, including sites on the Superfund National Priorities List or state superfund lists, with potential fines/penalties exceeding $1 million.
“We receive notices from the EPA and state environmental agencies alleging that we are or may be liable under federal or state environmental laws for remediation costs at various sites throughout the U.S., including sites on the Superfund National Priorities List or state superfund lists.”
SEC filing →As of 2026
The hidden graph
Who it depends on, and who depends on it.
Relationships surfaced from filings — including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.
Its customers
“CVR Partners distributes its nitrogen fertilizer products via railcars, primarily using the Union Pacific or Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroads, truck”
Cited →
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