What Energy Fuels, Inc. told the SEC could break it.

Energy Fuels' economics depend entirely on volatile critical-minerals prices — rare earth elements (NdPr/Dy/Tb), vanadium and uranium — whose supply and pricing are dominated by China and, for vanadium/uranium, Russia. Rare-earth pricing is especially China-controlled: per Benchmark, X-China (European) Dy and Tb oxide prices exceed Chinese prices by 443% and 401%, reflecting the scarcity of these oxides outside China and China's grip on processing. While this 'ex-China' premium is also the company's opportunity (it is building non-China REE supply and a 'mine-to-metal' chain via its proposed ASM acquisition), it leaves Energy Fuels exposed to China's ability to swing rare-earth prices through export controls or oversupply, as well as to vanadium (90%+ used in steel) and uranium price cycles.

“Benchmark's February 19, 2026 published European NdPr, Dy, and Tb prices of $130.00/kg, $1,125/kg and $4,500/kg exceed the published Chinese prices of $120.51/kg, $207/kg and $898/kg, respectively, by 8%, 443% and 401%, reflecting the scarcity of these REE oxides outside of China and their importance to markets in the U.S. and Europe.”

Energy Fuels' revenue is highly concentrated among a few customers (primarily nuclear utilities buying uranium, sold under privately negotiated contracts). In 2025, of $65.9 million total revenue, Customer 1 (uranium) was $17.2 million (~26%), Customer 2 (uranium) $15.4 million (~23%) and Customer 3 (uranium) $7.7 million — the top two uranium customers alone were roughly half of total revenue. Because uranium is sold via private long-term/spot contracts to a small set of utilities, loss of or non-renewal by one of these few customers would materially impact revenue.

“Sales to major customers (purchases in excess of 10% of total sales) are summarized as follows:”