What Weyerhaeuser Company told the SEC could break it.

Since the 2015 expiry of the US-Canada softwood lumber agreement, the US Commerce Department has imposed countervailing and antidumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports — including from Weyerhaeuser's Canadian mills — with no successor agreement in sight.

“Since that time, the U.S. Department of Commerce has issued countervailing and antidumping duties on softwood lumber imports from Canada based on findings of injury to U.S. lumber producers. We are not able to predict when, or if, a new softwood lumber agreement with Canada will be reached or, if reached, what the terms of the agreement would be.”

2025 US tariff actions (Feb 1 tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China; April 2 universal 10% baseline plus country-specific tariffs) and retaliatory measures could raise the cost of Weyerhaeuser's exports (logs/wood products to Canada and China) and imported raw materials.

“The U.S. presidential administration has taken multiple actions in 2025 to significantly increase tariffs on foreign imports into the United States, including imports from countries to which we export our products, such as Canada and China. For example, on February 1, 2025, the United States imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, and on April 2, 2025, the United States announced a universal baseline tariff of 10% on almost all imports, plus additional country-specific tariffs for select trading partners, including China.”

Weyerhaeuser's revenue is driven by log and lumber prices, which depend on US/Japan housing starts, construction activity, and pulp/containerboard/pellet/OSB mill demand for fiber — all cyclical and outside its control.

“domestic fiber log sales — demand for fiber by pulp mills, containerboard mills, pellet mills and oriented strand board mills and export log sales — the level of housing starts in Japan and construction in other international export markets, as well as availability of logs from other countries.”