Rationing diabetes medicine: not enough for everyone

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Insulin, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Recombinant Insulin API (Bulk Drug Substance) →Shortage risk

   Insulin

   Recombinant insulin API is a critical upstream input to insulin, so an API shortage directly reduces insulin availability.

   99% confidence

   Recombinant Insulin API (Bulk Drug Substance) →Shortage risk

   Novo NordiskNVO

   Novo Nordisk carries a 45% share on this input path, with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so API scarcity should constrain production.

   95% confidence

   Recombinant Insulin API (Bulk Drug Substance) →Shortage risk

   Eli Lilly and CompanyLLY

   Eli Lilly depends on this input for a 28% share path with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so shortage should constrain supply.

   93% confidence

   Recombinant Insulin API (Bulk Drug Substance) →Shortage risk

   SanofiSNY

   Sanofi has a 22% share on this input path with low substitutability and a long replacement lead time, so the API shortage should reduce its available insulin output.

   91% confidence

   Recombinant Insulin API (Bulk Drug Substance) →Shortage risk

   Biocon BiologicsBIOCON.NS

   Biocon Biologics has a much smaller 4% share and somewhat higher substitutability, so the input shortage still hurts but with a smaller effect.

   76% confidence

   Recombinant Insulin API (Bulk Drug Substance) →Shortage risk

   Intas Pharmaceuticals / Accord Healthcare

   Intas/Accord has a relatively small 5% share on this input path, so the shortage propagates but with lower intensity than the major manufacturers.

   74% confidence