What Green Plains Inc. told the SEC could break it.

Nearly all ethanol is sold with D6 RINs used by customers to meet RFS blending obligations; failure to meet EPA RIN-generation rules would force exports, open-market RIN purchases or discounted sales.

“Nearly all of our ethanol production is sold with D6 RINs that are used by our customers to comply with their blending obligations under the RFS. Should our production practices not meet the EPA's requirements for RIN generation in the future, we would need to export the ethanol, purchase RINs in the open market or sell our ethanol at a discounted price to compensate for t”

2025 executive orders (baseline 10% tariff), a Section 301 investigation into Brazil and Brazil's 18% tariff on U.S. ethanol create uncertainty around ethanol import/export pricing and retaliation risk.

“a series of executive orders issued in March and April of 2025 have introduced or proposed significant changes to U.S. trade policy, including a baseline 10% tariff on a broad range of imported goods, unless replaced by higher country-specific rates.”

Green Plains carries significant debt (Junior Notes, 2030 convertible notes, credit facilities) with several maturities extended into 2026; servicing/refinancing depends on uncertain future cash generation.

“Our indebtedness could negatively affect our financial condition, decrease our liquidity and impair our ability to operate the business. Our ability to make payments on and to refinance our debt will depend on our ability to generate cash in the future.”

Corn is Green Plains' largest input and it generally cannot pass higher corn costs to customers since ethanol competes with other fuels — exposing margins to corn/ethanol price volatility.

“Corn. We are generally unable to pass increased corn costs to our customers since ethanol competes with other fuels. We continue to see considerable volatility in corn prices.”

Green Plains' production facilities are concentrated in the Corn Belt (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska), with ~50% of all operational ethanol capacity in Iowa, Nebraska and Illinois — exposure to regional corn supply and weather.

“The largest concentration of operational plants is located in Iowa, Nebraska and Illinois, where approximately 50% of all operational production capacity is located.”