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SJM · CIK 0000091419

What The J. M. Smucker Company told the SEC could break it.

Coffee is where Smucker's risks stack up: substantially all of its coffee production sits in one hurricane-exposed plant in New Orleans, its key green-coffee input is highly volatile (a 2025 drought sharply cut Brazil's crop), and tariffs on imported inputs including coffee helped drive a 10% drop in fiscal 2026 gross profit. That single-site fragility extends to other lines too — it has consolidated substantially all coffee, Milk-Bone dog snacks, and fruit spreads into single manufacturing sites. At the same time, its revenue funnels through a short list of retailers: Walmart (with Sam's Club) was 34% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and its top 10 customers were about 60%. Peanuts and edible oils (palm, soybean, peanut) round out its weather-driven commodity exposure.

6 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings — each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.

In its own words

What could break it.

Commodity & input dependence

  • green coffee price volatility (Brazil drought)high

    Green coffee is highly significant to Smucker's coffee business and markets remain volatile; extreme drought in 2025 substantially cut Brazilian green coffee production.

    We expect the green coffee commodity markets to remain challenging due to ongoing and significant price volatility. For example, during 2025, we experienced extreme drought impact, which substantially reduced green coffee production in Brazil.

  • peanuts and edible oils (palm, soybean, peanut)medium

    Smucker, one of the largest U.S. peanut roasters, sources peanuts, oils and fats (palm, soybean, peanut) mainly from North America; prices are weather- and global-demand-driven.

    We source peanuts, oils, and fats mainly from North America. We are one of the largest roasters of peanuts in the U.S. and frequently enter into long-term purchase contracts for various periods of time to mitigate the risk of a shortage of this commodity. The oils we purchase are mainly palm, soybean, and peanut.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Climate & physical

  • coffee production concentrated in hurricane-exposed New Orleanshigh

    Substantially all of Smucker's coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana, exposing a major product line to hurricane and other weather-related events.

    In particular, substantially all of our coffee production takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana and is subject to risks associated with hurricane and other weather-related events, and some of our production facilities are located in places where tornadoes or wildfires can frequently occur, such as Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, and California.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Customer concentration

  • Walmart 34% of net sales; top 10 customers ~60%high

    Smucker's sales are highly concentrated: Walmart (incl. Sam's Club) was 34% of FY2026 net sales and 29% of trade receivables, and the top 10 customers were ~60% of consolidated net sales.

    During 2026, our top 10 customers, collectively, accounted for approximately 60 percent of consolidated net sales. We expect that a significant portion of our revenues will continue to be derived from a limited number of customers as the traditional retail grocery environment continues to consolidate and as dollar stores, club stores, and e-commerce retailers have experienced growth.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Sole-source dependency

  • single manufacturing sites for coffee, Milk-Bone, fruit spreadshigh

    Smucker has consolidated production into single manufacturing sites for substantially all of its coffee, Milk-Bone dog snacks, and fruit spreads, creating single-site disruption risk for major product lines.

    Certain of our products are produced at single manufacturing sites. We have consolidated our production capacity for certain products into single manufacturing sites, including substantially all of our coffee, Milk-Bone dog snacks, and fruit spreads. We could experience a production disruption at these or any of our manufacturing sites resulting in a reduction or elimination of the availability of some of our products.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Regulatory & policy

  • import tariffs on inputs (incl. coffee)medium

    Tariffs were a stated driver of Smucker's 10% FY2026 gross profit decline, alongside commodity cost inflation, and tariff/policy changes could persist into FY2027.

    Gross profit decreased $350.2, or 10 percent, in 2026, primarily driven by higher costs, inclusive of commodity costs and tariffs, unfavorable volume/mix, a net unfavorable impact of derivative gains and losses, an increase in special project costs, and the noncomparable impact of divestitures, partially offset by higher net price realization.

The hidden graph

Who it depends on, and who depends on it.

Relationships surfaced from filings — including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.

Its customers

  • Walmart Inc. (incl. Sam's Club)

    Sales to Walmart Inc. and subsidiaries, including Sam's Club, amounted to 34 percent of net sales in 2026 and 33 percent of net sales in both 2025 and 2024. These sales are primarily included in our U.S. Retail reportable segments. No other customer exceeded 10 percent of net sales for any year.

    Cited →

Its suppliers

  • Graham Packaging Company

    If KDP or Graham Packaging is unable to supply these products or packaging for any reason, we may be unable to secure alternative sources on commercially reasonable terms, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

    Cited →
  • Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

    If KDP or Graham Packaging is unable to supply these products or packaging for any reason, we may be unable to secure alternative sources on commercially reasonable terms, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

    Cited →

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