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KDP · CIK 0001418135

What Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. told the SEC could break it.

Keurig Dr Pepper's disclosures lean heavily on input costs and the supply chain behind them: it's exposed to a broad basket of commodities — coffee beans, aluminum, PET and polypropylene, corn for HFCS, sucrose, diesel and natural gas — buys some packaging and materials from a limited or sole supplier, and sources its brewers from a handful of Asian contract manufacturers. Recent and threatened U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and Brazil added to that pressure, contributing about a 4-point unfavorable swing in gross profit in 2025. On the demand side, a single customer, Walmart, was roughly 16% of net sales across all three segments, and the Keurig business remains tangled in multidistrict antitrust litigation over single-serve K-Cup pods.

5 self-disclosed vulnerabilities, pulled from its own filings — each in the company’s words, with the source. This is the risk register almost nobody reads.

In its own words

What could break it.

Customer concentration

  • Walmart = ~16% of consolidated net saleshigh

    Walmart is KDP's largest customer at ~16% of consolidated net sales in 2025 ($2,654M) and >10% of trade receivables ($186M), spanning all three segments — a meaningful single-customer concentration.

    Walmart is considered a major customer, accounting for more than 10% of our total net sales, and is represented in all three of our reportable segments. The following table provides our net sales to Walmart: For the Year Ended December 31, (in millions) 2025 2024 2023 Net sales Walmart $ 2,654 $ 2,514 $ 2,476

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Commodity & input dependence

  • coffee, aluminum, PET, polypropylene, corn (HFCS), sucrose, diesel, natural gasmedium

    KDP faces commodity price risk across coffee beans, PET, polypropylene, aluminum, diesel fuel, corn (HFCS), apple juice concentrate, sucrose, and natural gas; a 10% commodity-price move shifts its hedge derivatives' fair value by ~$60M, and recovery via pricing may be limited by competition.

    Our principal commodities risks relate to our purchases of coffee beans, PET, Polypropylene, aluminum, diesel fuel, corn (for high fructose corn syrup), apple juice concentrate, sucrose, and natural gas (for use in processing and packaging).

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Litigation

  • Keurig single-serve coffee (K-Cup) antitrust litigationmedium

    KDP's Keurig business faces multidistrict antitrust litigation over single-serve coffee portion packs (direct purchasers including McLane, BJ's, Winn-Dixie); Keurig settled the indirect-purchaser class claims for $31 million, with other claims ongoing.

    All of these actions were transferred to the SDNY for coordinated pre-trial proceedings (In re: Keurig Green Mountain Single-Serve Coffee Antitrust Litigation) (the "Multidistrict Antitrust Litigation"). In July 2020, Keurig reached an agreement with one of the plaintiff groups in the Multidistrict Antitrust Litigation, the putative indirect purchaser class, to settle the claims asserted for $ 31 million.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

Regulatory & policy

  • tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, Brazil imports (gross-profit drag)medium

    Recent and threatened U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, Brazil, and others (and retaliatory actions) have hurt KDP's profitability — contributing to a ~4 percentage-point unfavorable gross-profit impact from ingredients/materials inclusive of tariffs in 2025.

    Restrictions on business activities, which have been or may be imposed or expanded as a result of political and economic instability, deterioration of economic relations between countries, such as changes in or terminations of existing trade agreements, or the imposition of tariffs (including recent U.S. tariffs imposed or threatened to be imposed on Canada, Mexico, China, Brazil, and other countries, and any retaliatory actions taken by such countries), or otherwise, has and could continue to impact our profitability or otherwise have an adverse effect on our business.

Sole-source dependency

  • limited- or sole-source raw materials/packaging and limited brewer manufacturers (Asia)medium

    Some raw materials and packaging are available only from a limited number of suppliers or a sole supplier; KDP also relies on a limited number of suppliers/manufacturers for its brewers (made by Asian contract manufacturers) and limited order-fulfillment companies for brewers, concentrates, and syrups.

    Some raw materials and supplies used in the production of our products, including packaging materials, are available from a limited number of suppliers or from a sole supplier, or are in short supply when seasonal demand is at its peak.

    SEC filing →As of 2026

The hidden graph

Who it depends on, and who depends on it.

Relationships surfaced from filings — including ones disclosed by the other side, which is how the non-obvious ones come to light.

Its customers

  • Walmart Inc.

    Our largest retailer, Walmart, represented approximately 16% of our consolidated net sales in 2025. Net sales to Walmart are included in all reportable segments.

    Cited →
  • The J. M. Smucker Company

    If KDP or Graham Packaging is unable to supply these products or packaging for any reason, we may be unable to secure alternative sources on commercially reasonable terms, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.

    Cited →

Its suppliers

  • The Coca-Cola Company

    In the U.S. and Canada, we generally grant manufacturing and distribution licenses for our CSDs to bottlers for specific geographic areas that are typically exclusive and long-term. These bottlers may be affiliated with Coca-Cola or with PepsiCo, or they may be independent.

    Cited →
  • PepsiCo, Inc.

    In the U.S. and Canada, we generally grant manufacturing and distribution licenses for our CSDs to bottlers for specific geographic areas that are typically exclusive and long-term. These bottlers may be affiliated with Coca-Cola or with PepsiCo, or they may be independent.

    Cited →
  • Crown Holdings, Inc.

    The Company's largest beverage can customers consist of many of the leading manufacturers and marketers of packaged consumer products in the world, including Anheuser-Busch InBev, Coca-Cola, Heineken, Keurig Dr Pepper, Molson Coors, Pepsi-Cola, and Refresco, among others.

    Cited →

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