Pemex crude oil exports fall 45% in August amid refining push

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from PEMEX (Petróleos Mexicanos), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   PEMEX (Petróleos Mexicanos) →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Pemex’s 45% crude export slump directly tightens the crude feedstock stream associated with this edge, though the market impact is muted by only 2% share and moderate substitutability.

   87% confidence

   Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   Canadian crude oil imports are a major feedstock for jet fuel, so a disruption to the import stream can tighten jet fuel supply, though the impact is cushioned by diversified crude sourcing.

   57% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Jet fuel →Shortage risk

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Jet fuel is critically dependent on Gulf Coast crude feedstock, so a 45% drop in Pemex crude exports should tighten the crude supply available to Gulf Coast jet-fuel production.

   78% confidence

3. Hop 3

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   Jet fuel depends critically on this feedstock (dependency_strength 0.95), so a crude-supply drop should directly tighten jet fuel availability.

   95% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise

   ExxonMobilXOM

   This input accounts for a 9% supply share to ExxonMobil and is only moderately substitutable, so the feedstock hit should raise its input costs.

   80% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices rise

   Valero Energy

4. Hop 4

   Marathon Petroleum Corporation →Prices ease

   Chord Energy CorporationCHRD

   Chord sells to Marathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC, which accounted for about 12% of Chord's total product sales, so a Marathon throughput cut can reduce Chord's offtake and दब pressure prices.

   80% confidence

   Motiva Enterprises LLC →Shortage risk

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Motiva's constrained operations can reduce supply of this feedstock, and its 3.75% market share with only moderate substitutability and a 6-month replacement time implies a modest but real shortage.

   71% confidence

   ExxonMobil →Shortage risk