Honeywell to help build Dangote's new Kenyan mega-refinery
A new mega-refinery project would add future refining capacity and new fuel supply if completed.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Dangote Cement, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Electricity (Refinery Operations) →supply upKenyan government
The planned Lamu refinery would add up to 1,000 MW of electricity generation, with part of that power potentially supplied to the Kenyan government, so available electricity would rise if the project is completed.
“the planned refinery in Lamu will generate up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity, with part of the power potentially supplied to the Kenyan government.”
81% confidenceCited →PBF Energy →Prices riseA completed 700,000 bpd refinery would add meaningful crude demand, and PBF's crude feedstock is a moderately substitutable input with a 3-month replacement lead time, so the input price can rise.
36% confidenceBP plc →Prices easeGrupo AeromexicoAERO
BP supplies Aeromexico with fuel, and the contract pricing is tied to market benchmarks, so a major new refinery adding fuel supply should modestly ease fuel prices for this customer.
36% confidenceHop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upA new mega-refinery adds conversion capacity, so the crude feedstock stream can support more gasoline and diesel output if completed.
77% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upThe same added refining capacity should raise home heating oil availability as another fuel output derived from crude feedstock.
72% confidenceHop 3
Gasoline and diesel →Prices riseA new mega-refinery expanding gasoline and diesel output must run more crude through the system, so its core feedstock faces higher demand and upward price pressure.
74% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseIf new refinery capacity increases home-heating-oil output, it raises demand for the crude feedstock required to make it, which would tend to lift crude-input prices.
58% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
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