MEA: diesel exports fell by 700 thousand barrels per day in September
Diesel export volumes dropped sharply, reducing near-term supply available to importers.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gasoline and diesel →Prices riseGlobal diesel prices
Reduced diesel exports tighten supply and are already associated with near-record diesel prices in multiple markets.
“Global diesel exports have fallen by approximately one million barrels per day since 2025, with the conflict involving Iran cited as having a larger impact than the war in Ukraine. US retail diesel prices have risen significantly, nearing record highs, with similar trends observed in the UK.”
90% confidenceCited →Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Prices riseMarine diesel and bunker fuel is marked a critical input for seafood and fish, so a sharp export-driven supply drop raises fishing and transport costs and tightens availability.
90% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Stands to benefitIndian diesel exporters
When West Asian refining output is disrupted, Indian refiners can capture displaced export demand and ship more diesel.
“Indian refiners, mostly private sector, exported roughly 2.50 million tonnes (mt) of diesel, the highest in a year, in September as refinery attacks and geopolitical tensions impacted roughly 10 per cent of the global refining capacity with transportation bottlenecks further exacerbating the situation.”
77% confidenceCited →Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskDiesel exports are part of the gasoline-and-diesel product pool, and this edge is critical with full dependency, so a sharp export drop tightens near-term supply to importers.
75% confidenceHop 2
Seafood and fish →Prices easeFish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed)
As marine diesel shortages reduce seafood and fish output, aquaculture feed demand softens; this is a critical input, but only for the farmed share of the sector.
54% confidenceHop 3
Fish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed) →Shortage riskSeafood and fish depends critically on fish meal and fish oil as an input, so a supply hit here should quickly tighten downstream output.
79% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Seafood and fish · Gasoline and diesel
Companies you may own
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