Polysilicon plant at risk of closure
A polysilicon plant closure would reduce supply of a key solar-panel and semiconductor input.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Solar-Grade Polysilicon, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Solar-Grade Polysilicon →Prices riseSolar panels
Polysilicon is the hyperpure silicon at the bottom of solar panels, so a supply reduction should raise panel input costs.
“the hyperpure silicon that sits at the bottom of both solar panels and computer chips.”
91% confidenceCited →Daqo New Energy Corp. →Shortage riskIf Daqo's plant closes, its roughly 12% share of solar-grade polysilicon output would be removed, and the low substitutability plus multi-year replacement lead time make the supply hit material.
88% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon →Prices riseComputer chips
The same source says polysilicon sits at the bottom of computer chips, so tighter polysilicon supply should lift chip input costs.
“the hyperpure silicon that sits at the bottom of both solar panels and computer chips.”
86% confidenceCited →REC Silicon →Shortage riskElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
If REC Silicon's polysilicon plant closes, its semiconductor-grade polysilicon output is directly curtailed; the edge shows a 4% market share with low substitutability and a 24-month replacement lead time.
76% confidenceREC Silicon →Shortage riskA plant closure would also tighten REC Silicon's solar-grade polysilicon supply, but the edge's 0.5% share and higher substitutability make the effect smaller.
62% confidenceHop 2
Electronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers) →Shortage riskThis input is marked critical to semiconductors and chips with 0.7 dependency strength, so a supply cut transmits directly into input scarcity and delays.
84% confidenceElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers) →Stands to benefitAs a 28% share alternative supplier of the same polysilicon, it can absorb diverted demand when REC Silicon's output is constrained.
67% confidenceElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers) →Stands to benefitHop 3
Wacker Chemie AG →Shortage riskElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
Wacker is a major supplier of 11N electronic-grade polysilicon (27% share) with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so a plant closure would materially tighten supply.
86% confidenceWacker Chemie AG →Shortage riskWacker also supplies solar-grade polysilicon (12% share), so a closure would reduce availability of that input as well.
80% confidenceHemlock Semiconductor →Shortage riskElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Solar panels · Computer chips · Semiconductors and chips
Companies you may own
Hemlock SemiconductorWCH.DE
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