Disruptionsanction · October 16, 2026

Green light for Lukoil until April 24

A temporary authorization likely allows Lukoil-related oil operations or transactions to continue through April 24.

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

First impact
Gasoline and diesel →Stands to benefit
Lukoil-branded service stations outside Russia
OFAC's waiver lets Lukoil-branded foreign service stations keep everyday consumer operations, preserving the retail fuel channel for gasoline and diesel.
“"allows Lukoil-branded service stations in foreign markets to continue everyday consumer operations."”
92% confidenceCited →
Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up
Lubricants and motor oil
Base oils are a critical, high-dependency input for lubricants and motor oil, so a temporary continuation of Lukoil-related oil transactions should ease feedstock scarcity.
62% confidence
Lubricants and motor oil →Prices rise
Base oils (Group II/III)
The temporary license likely keeps Lukoil-linked lubricant production and sales operating, preserving strong demand for critical base oils and putting upward pressure on their price.
58% confidence
Lubricants and motor oil →Prices rise
Lubricant additive packages
Because the waiver allows Lukoil-related oil operations to continue, demand for this critical lubricant input should remain elevated, supporting higher prices.
56% confidence
Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up
SK Enmove
SK Enmove has a meaningful share of this input, so continued Lukoil-related flows should modestly ease its base-oil availability constraint.
55% confidence
Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up
ExxonMobilXOM
With base oils staying more available, ExxonMobil's base-oil input supply should improve modestly given its meaningful but non-sole sourcing share.
54% confidence
Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up
Chevron Corporation
Chevron's base-oil input exposure is material but substitutable, so the waiver should modestly improve its supply situation.
53% confidence
Hop 2
SK Enmove →supply up
Base oils (Group II/III)
The temporary authorization likely keeps Lukoil-linked Group II/III base-oil flows available, modestly improving a 12% input to SK Enmove despite some substitutability.
56% confidence
Lubricant additive packages →Stands to benefit
Lubrizol (Berkshire Hathaway)BRK.B
Keeping Lukoil-linked oil transactions moving through April 24 should preserve lubricant output and the associated demand for additive packages, benefiting Lubrizol as the largest listed supplier.
47% confidence
Lubricant additive packages →Stands to benefit
NewMarket Corporation (Afton Chemical)
Hop 3
Lubrizol (Berkshire Hathaway) →supply up
Lubricant additive packages
If the temporary Lukoil authorization keeps lubricants and motor oil activity flowing, it supports demand for Lubrizol's 30% share of lubricant additive packages, making that input more available.
39% confidence

Where it lands

What you buy, and what you own.

Goods you buy

Lubricants and motor oil

Companies you may own

SK EnmoveXOMChevron CorporationBRK.BNEU

Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.

In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.

How it reaches your house.

First impact

Gasoline and diesel →Stands to benefit

Lukoil-branded service stations outside Russia

OFAC's waiver lets Lukoil-branded foreign service stations keep everyday consumer operations, preserving the retail fuel channel for gasoline and diesel.

“"allows Lukoil-branded service stations in foreign markets to continue everyday consumer operations."”

92% confidenceCited →

Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up

Lubricants and motor oil

Base oils are a critical, high-dependency input for lubricants and motor oil, so a temporary continuation of Lukoil-related oil transactions should ease feedstock scarcity.

62% confidence

Lubricants and motor oil →Prices rise

Base oils (Group II/III)

The temporary license likely keeps Lukoil-linked lubricant production and sales operating, preserving strong demand for critical base oils and putting upward pressure on their price.

58% confidence

Lubricants and motor oil →Prices rise

Lubricant additive packages

Because the waiver allows Lukoil-related oil operations to continue, demand for this critical lubricant input should remain elevated, supporting higher prices.

56% confidence

Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up

SK Enmove

SK Enmove has a meaningful share of this input, so continued Lukoil-related flows should modestly ease its base-oil availability constraint.

55% confidence

Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up

ExxonMobilXOM

With base oils staying more available, ExxonMobil's base-oil input supply should improve modestly given its meaningful but non-sole sourcing share.

54% confidence

Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up

Chevron Corporation

Chevron's base-oil input exposure is material but substitutable, so the waiver should modestly improve its supply situation.

53% confidence

Hop 2

SK Enmove →supply up

Base oils (Group II/III)

The temporary authorization likely keeps Lukoil-linked Group II/III base-oil flows available, modestly improving a 12% input to SK Enmove despite some substitutability.

56% confidence

Lubricant additive packages →Stands to benefit

Lubrizol (Berkshire Hathaway)BRK.B

Keeping Lukoil-linked oil transactions moving through April 24 should preserve lubricant output and the associated demand for additive packages, benefiting Lubrizol as the largest listed supplier.

47% confidence

Lubricant additive packages →Stands to benefit

NewMarket Corporation (Afton Chemical)

Hop 3

Lubrizol (Berkshire Hathaway) →supply up

Lubricant additive packages

If the temporary Lukoil authorization keeps lubricants and motor oil activity flowing, it supports demand for Lubrizol's 30% share of lubricant additive packages, making that input more available.

39% confidence