Santos loads first Pikka crude oil

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Canadian crude oil imports →supply up

   Jet fuel

   Canadian crude oil imports are a major feedstock input for jet fuel, so additional crude supply entering the market should ease input tightness and support jet fuel availability.

   44% confidence

   Chevron Corporation →Prices ease

   Base oils (Group II/III)

   Santos’ first 450,000-barrel Pikka cargo adds crude supply to the market, which can soften petroleum-derived feedstock prices; Chevron’s base-oils input is moderately important and not sole-sourced, so the relief is indirect but plausible.

   38% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up

   Lubricants and motor oil

   Group II/III base oils are a critical input to lubricants and motor oil, so more base-oil availability should translate into more downstream lubricant supply.

   74% confidence

   Jet fuel →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Pikka's first crude loading adds market crude supply, and the graph shows jet fuel critically depends on crude feedstock, so that upstream input should become more available.

   58% confidence

3. Hop 3

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is a critical near-direct input to jet fuel (dependency_strength=0.95), so more supply should raise jet-fuel availability.

   94% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices ease

   ExxonMobilXOM

   More feedstock availability should lower ExxonMobil's input costs, and its 9% share makes the effect material despite moderate substitutability.

   72% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices ease

   Valero Energy