Gulf oil exports recover to 81% of pre-war levels

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   Jet fuel

   As Gulf feedstock availability recovers, the critical upstream constraint on jet-fuel production eases, so jet fuel supply should rise.

   83% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Valero EnergyVLO

   More Gulf feedstock availability should ease a key input constraint for Valero's refining operations and support throughput.

   74% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Marathon Petroleum CorporationMPC

   Recovered feedstock supply should benefit Marathon's refining slate by reducing the input bottleneck tied to this Gulf source.

   73% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Motiva Enterprises LLC

   Higher availability of this feedstock should relieve a refinery input constraint for Motiva and support operations.

   72% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   Phillips 66PSX

   Phillips 66 should see some benefit from improved access to Gulf feedstock, though the transmission is smaller given its lower share on this edge.

   70% confidence

   Canadian crude oil imports →supply up

   Jet fuel

   Recovering Gulf crude exports improves crude import availability, and that stronger input flow should modestly raise jet fuel supply given the 0.75 dependency strength.

   69% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefit

   ExxonMobilXOM

   ExxonMobil's downstream operations should benefit from more available Gulf feedstock, though its integrated business mix makes the net effect somewhat mixed.

   69% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Valero Energy →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   As Gulf oil exports recover, Valero's Gulf Coast jet-fraction crude feedstock becomes more available, easing the input constraint on this exact supply line.

   96% confidence

   Jet fuel →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   A rebound in Gulf oil exports should ease the upstream crude feedstock constraint feeding jet-fuel production, and this input is a critical, high-dependency source for the node.

   86% confidence

   ExxonMobil →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)