G7 to release 100 million barrels from emergency oil reserves
A coordinated reserve release adds crude oil supply to the market and can ease shortages.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseJet fuel is a critical output of this feedstock, so thinner emergency crude buffers should push jet-fuel prices higher.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil takes a 9% share from this feedstock path, so a smaller cushion is likely to raise its crude-input costs.
71% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseValero Energy relies on this Gulf Coast feedstock, and with moderate substitutability a thinner buffer should lift its input costs.
Hop 2
ExxonMobil →Prices riseA smaller emergency crude buffer should make ExxonMobil’s crude feedstock more expensive and potentially tighter if disruptions hit, and this input has limited substitutability with a nontrivial replacement lead time.
81% confidenceJet fuel →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Jet fuel depends critically on Gulf Coast jet-feed crude, and a thinner emergency crude cushion makes that feedstock more vulnerable and costly when disruptions hit.
72% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Prices easeHop 3
Chord Energy Corporation →Prices riseChord Energy's sales to Phillips 66 are material, so a tighter oil market can pass through as higher crude/feedstock costs for this customer.
67% confidenceChord Energy Corporation →Prices riseMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLCMPC
Chord Energy's sales to Marathon Petroleum Supply & Trading are a meaningful share of product sales, so tighter oil availability can raise this customer's input cost.
64% confidenceHop 4
Marathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC →Shortage riskOxidized Asphalt/Bitumen is a petroleum-derived input with 18% market share and only 35% substitutability, so a thinner crude safety cushion can make it scarcer and harder to replace.
67% confidencePhillips 66 Company →Stands to benefitPhillips 66 is a major customer for Chord (about 21% of 2025 product sales), so tighter crude availability can support Chord's realized prices and sales value even as Phillips 66 is squeezed.
63% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC →Stands to benefit