Saudi oil crisis is about to hit Europe
A Saudi oil supply disruption is expected to affect European crude and product availability.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Saudi Aramco →Shortage riskCrude Oil
Saudi Arabia informed European customers that some crude cargoes would be canceled, tightening crude availability.
“Saudi Arabia had informed European customers that some September-loading crude cargoes will be canceled”
95% confidenceCited →Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseThis feedstock is a critical near-direct input to jet fuel, so tighter supply transmits almost one-for-one into higher jet-fuel prices.
93% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil’s 9% exposure and only moderate substitutability mean this feedstock disruption should raise its input costs.
80% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseValero’s 7.5% exposure and short but nontrivial replacement lag point to a smaller yet real rise in feedstock costs.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon’s 7% exposure and 3-month replacement lag make it vulnerable to higher crude-feedstock costs.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseMotiva’s 3.75% exposure implies a modest but credible increase in input costs from the disruption.
73% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices risePhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66’s 3% exposure and 3-month replacement lag support a modest rise in feedstock costs.
72% confidenceHop 2
Marathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC accounts for about 12% of Chord Energy's product sales, so a Marathon disruption would materially reduce Chord's customer demand.
94% confidencePhillips 66 →Shortage riskPhillips 66's feedstock disruption can reduce demand for Chord's product sales, and Chord discloses that sales to Phillips 66 were about 21% of total product sales.
74% confidenceJet fuel →Shortage riskInto-plane fueling
Hop 3
Chord Energy Corporation →Shortage riskChord Energy disclosed that sales to Phillips 66 Company were about 21% of total product sales, so a disruption at Chord can reduce product availability to this customer.
57% confidenceChord Energy Corporation →Shortage riskMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLCMPC
Chord Energy disclosed that sales to Marathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC were about 12% of total product sales, so a disruption at Chord can tighten supply to this customer.
55% confidenceHop 4
Phillips 66 Company →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Phillips 66 has a disclosed dependency on Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction), so a Saudi crude disruption would most plausibly raise the replacement cost of this relatively substitutable input, though the exposure is limited by its 3% share.
49% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
A Saudi crude supply shock can raise costs for substitute Gulf Coast jet feedstock, though the 7% share and moderate substitutability limit the size of the transmission.
46% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC →Prices rise