China now requires an export license for all new large AI models, affecting moonshot’s unreleased Kimi K3.1, as Taiwan criminalizes smuggling of advanced chips to China
New export licensing and anti-smuggling rules may restrict flows of advanced AI models and chips into China.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
NVIDIA Corporation →Shortage riskAI Training GPU (H100/H200/B200 class)
Tighter criminal enforcement on AI chip exports to China would curb NVIDIA’s advanced GPU shipments, and the edge’s 88% market share plus 24-month replacement lead time imply a material supply shortfall.
78% confidenceTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) →Shortage riskAI Training GPU (H100/H200/B200 class)
Taiwan's tighter enforcement against unauthorized AI-chip exports to China would make TSMC-made H100/H200/B200-class supply materially scarcer for China-bound flows, and this class is effectively single-sourced with very limited substitutability and a long replacement lead time.
78% confidenceSemiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Computers and laptops · Servers and cloud hardware
Companies you may own
NVIDIA Corporation
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.