US extends Russian diamond import waiver to 2027
The waiver prolongs permitted imports of Russian diamonds, easing a sanctions-related supply restriction on the diamond trade.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Alrosa PJSC, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Cut & Polished Diamonds →supply upThe waiver extends access to eligible Russian diamond imports, easing the input constraint for the downstream jewelry sector that depends heavily on cut & polished diamonds.
90% confidenceCut & Polished Diamonds →Stands to benefitIndia's 45.9% supply share makes it the dominant hub in this chain, so continued diamond-flow access should support Indian cutting and trading activity.
76% confidenceDe Beers Group →supply upThe waiver extends authorized Russian-diamond imports to 2027, which should ease supply constraints in the cut-and-polished diamond trade; De Beers’ 30% market share and 12-month replacement lead time make the transmission material.
71% confidenceCut & Polished Diamonds →Stands to benefitIsrael's 24.4% supply share gives it a meaningful upside from the extended window for permitted diamond imports.
68% confidenceAlrosa PJSC →supply upThe waiver extension keeps Russian-diamond imports flowing, and this edge indicates Alrosa has a 30% supply share with long replacement times, so diamond availability should improve.
64% confidenceCut & Polished Diamonds →Stands to benefitAs a Russian diamond supplier, Alrosa benefits from the prolonged permissive window for eligible Russian-origin diamond imports.
64% confidenceHop 2
Jewelry →Prices riseRefined Gold Bullion (Jewelry Grade)
Easier diamond sourcing can support more diamond-jewelry output, which tends to tighten demand for jewelry-grade gold bullion, a critical input.
61% confidenceJewelry →Prices riseJewelry Findings, Clasps & Settings
Higher jewelry assembly volumes should increase demand for findings, clasps, and settings used to complete finished pieces.
52% confidenceJewelry →Prices easeIf natural diamonds become easier to import, some jewelry demand can shift away from lab-grown stones, pressuring that substitute input's price.
Hop 3
Lab-Grown Diamonds (CVD/HPHT) →Prices easeIf easier Russian-diamond imports weaken demand for lab-grown diamonds, the impact lands most heavily on India, which accounts for 91% of this input's supply.
49% confidenceJewelry Findings, Clasps & Settings →Prices riseIf the diamond waiver lifts jewelry activity enough to tighten demand for jewelry findings, clasps and settings, Swarovski would face higher input costs through this direct supply link.
47% confidenceLab-Grown Diamonds (CVD/HPHT) →Prices easeA softer lab-grown-diamond market would make this jewelry input cheaper and easier to source, since Jewelry depends on it as an input.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jewelry
Companies you may own
Alrosa PJSCSwarovski
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