Disruptionfacility incident · August 9, 2026

Oman's refinery output falls 5.1% in first half of 2026

Refinery output in Oman has fallen, reducing supply of refined petroleum products.

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

First impact
Base oils (Group II/III) →Shortage risk
Lubricants and motor oil
Base oils are a critical, high-dependency input to lubricants and motor oil, so a refinery-driven base-oil squeeze directly tightens their availability.
93% confidence
Base oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefit
South Korea
As Middle East supply is disrupted, Asia's broader supply can replace part of the lost volume, and South Korea's elevated production or exports position it to gain share.
71% confidence
ADNOC →Shortage risk
LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane)
Oman’s refinery output decline explicitly included lower LPG production, so LPG supply tightens; ADNOC’s exposure through this input is limited because LPG is only a 4% input with high substitutability and a short replacement lead time.
63% confidence
Hop 2
LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Prices rise
Propane (home use)
LPG is a direct feedstock for home-use propane, so a supply fall in LPG tightens propane availability and lifts delivered prices.
86% confidence
Lubricants and motor oil →Prices ease
Lubricant additive packages
If lubricant and motor oil output falls because base oils are tight, demand for additive packages also falls, pressuring additive-package prices.
58% confidence
LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Stands to benefit
United States
Hop 3
Lubricant additive packages →Shortage risk
Lubricants and motor oil
Lubricant additive packages are a critical, high-dependency input to lubricants and motor oil, so a shortage here directly constrains finished lubricant output.
78% confidence

Where it lands

What you buy, and what you own.

Goods you buy

Lubricants and motor oil · Propane (home use)

Companies you may own

No named companies on this path.

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In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.

How it reaches your house.

First impact

Base oils (Group II/III) →Shortage risk

Lubricants and motor oil

Base oils are a critical, high-dependency input to lubricants and motor oil, so a refinery-driven base-oil squeeze directly tightens their availability.

93% confidence

Base oils (Group II/III) →Stands to benefit

South Korea

As Middle East supply is disrupted, Asia's broader supply can replace part of the lost volume, and South Korea's elevated production or exports position it to gain share.

71% confidence

ADNOC →Shortage risk

LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane)

Oman’s refinery output decline explicitly included lower LPG production, so LPG supply tightens; ADNOC’s exposure through this input is limited because LPG is only a 4% input with high substitutability and a short replacement lead time.

63% confidence

Hop 2

LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Prices rise

Propane (home use)

LPG is a direct feedstock for home-use propane, so a supply fall in LPG tightens propane availability and lifts delivered prices.

86% confidence

Lubricants and motor oil →Prices ease

Lubricant additive packages

If lubricant and motor oil output falls because base oils are tight, demand for additive packages also falls, pressuring additive-package prices.

58% confidence

LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Stands to benefit

United States

Hop 3

Lubricant additive packages →Shortage risk

Lubricants and motor oil

Lubricant additive packages are a critical, high-dependency input to lubricants and motor oil, so a shortage here directly constrains finished lubricant output.

78% confidence