El brote de ébola en RDC deja cerca de 3.500 muertos

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Cobalt Ore (DRC) →Shortage risk

   CMOC Group3993.HK

   CMOC sources a very large share of this input (41%) and the edge has a long 36-month replacement horizon, so an Ebola-related DRC mining slowdown should tighten its cobalt feedstock supply.

   86% confidence

   Cobalt Ore (DRC) →Shortage risk

   Cobalt and battery minerals

   This is the critical downstream good, and the edge explicitly marks cobalt and battery minerals as highly dependent on this input (dependency strength 0.9), so DRC outbreak-related mining disruption should reduce availability.

   83% confidence

   Cobalt Ore (DRC) →Shortage risk

   Glencore

2. Hop 2

   Cobalt and battery minerals →Shortage risk

   Cobalt Sulfate (Battery Grade)

   Disruption to DRC cobalt output tightens battery-grade cobalt sulfate supply, a critical cobalt input.

   84% confidence

   Glencore →Shortage risk

   Cobalt Ore (DRC)

   The Ebola outbreak can disrupt DRC labor, transport, and mining activity, tightening cobalt ore supply on a link where Glencore has 14% exposure, low substitutability, and a long replacement horizon.

   82% confidence

   Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. →Shortage risk

   Cobalt Sulfate (Battery Grade)

3. Hop 3

   Cobalt Sulfate (Battery Grade) →Shortage risk

   China

   China accounts for 80% of the supply share for this node, so the DRC shock most strongly tightens Chinese cobalt sulfate supply.

   87% confidence

   Cobalt Sulfate (Battery Grade) →Shortage risk

   Cobalt and battery minerals

   Battery-grade cobalt sulfate is a critical input to the broader cobalt and battery minerals category, so upstream disruption makes that category scarcer.

   78% confidence

   Cobalt Sulfate (Battery Grade) →Shortage risk

   GEM Co., Ltd.

   Cobalt sulfate is a direct input for GEM, and its 12% share plus 24-month replacement lead time makes a DRC-linked supply shock likely to constrain GEM's supply.

4. Hop 4

   China →Delays

   e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF

   The company says substantially all third-party suppliers and manufacturers are in China, so a China-side disruption can delay sourcing and production.

   84% confidence

   CMOC Group (China Molybdenum) →Delays

   Cobalt Ore (DRC)

   CMOC's DRC cobalt-ore supply is directly exposed to Ebola-related labor and transport disruption, and the 25% share plus 36-month replacement time makes a material delay likely.

   80% confidence

   China →Delays

   Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Co.