Libya's oil output faces threat from its own oil security force

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Frontline plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage risk

   Libya

   Libya supplies 1% of Canadian crude oil imports, so a threat to Libyan oil output trims that source slice of imports.

   91% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Libya →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Libya's threatened oil output can reduce the small share of crude oil feedstock sourced from the country, making this input modestly scarcer.

   82% confidence

   Libya →Shortage risk

   Canadian crude oil imports

   A disruption in Libya's oil output can trim the roughly 1% of Canadian crude oil imports attributed to Libya.

   81% confidence

   Libya →Shortage risk

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Because Libya supplies a small share of this feedstock, a Libyan output shock can slightly tighten availability here as well.

3. Hop 3

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   This is a critical 95%-dependent input to jet fuel, so a Libya-related feedstock shortfall should directly tighten jet fuel supply.

   95% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   ExxonMobilXOM

   ExxonMobil's 9% share of this input and only moderate substitutability mean a feedstock shortfall should constrain its operations.

   82% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Valero Energy

4. Hop 4

   ExxonMobil →Shortage risk

   ProPetro Holding Corp.PUMP

   ProPetro disclosed that ExxonMobil accounted for 24.9% of 2025 revenue, so an ExxonMobil slowdown from crude-feedstock disruption would materially reduce ProPetro's orders and revenue.

   68% confidence

   ExxonMobil →Shortage risk

   Talos Energy, Inc.TALO

   Talos said 23% of its oil, natural gas and NGL revenues were attributable to ExxonMobil, so lower ExxonMobil activity would likely cut Talos's revenue.

   67% confidence

   ExxonMobil →Shortage risk

   Noble Corp plc