Brazil’s oil output hits record as war drives up non-OPEC supply
Record oil output in Brazil increases crude supply to the market and offsets some supply pressure elsewhere.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil is a critical, one-to-one refining input for gasoline and diesel, so more feedstock should increase downstream fuel availability.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upHigher crude feedstock supply eases refining constraints, supporting greater home heating oil output and availability.
95% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upBrazil supplies 3.7% of Canadian crude oil imports, so Brazil's record output should modestly improve crude feedstock availability, and those imports are a strong input to jet fuel (0.75 dependency strength).
Hop 2
Home heating oil →supply upRecord Brazilian output increases crude availability, directly easing the critical feedstock constraint for home heating oil.
93% confidenceGasoline and diesel →supply upBrazil’s record crude output adds feedstock to refinery supply, easing the primary input constraint for gasoline and diesel production.
91% confidenceJet fuel →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Record Brazilian crude output eases crude feedstock availability for jet fuel, and this is a critical high-dependency input to the product.
Hop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upBrazil's record crude output eases upstream feedstock tightness, making this critical jet-fuel input more available.
85% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitExxonMobilXOM
As a direct recipient of this feedstock, ExxonMobil should benefit from lower input tightness and improved crude availability.
70% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitHop 4
Valero Energy →Prices easeGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Brazil's record crude output adds market supply, which should ease Valero's crude feedstock costs; this is a meaningful but not sole-source input with moderate substitutability.
84% confidencePhillips 66 →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Additional Brazilian crude output should ease tightness in Phillips 66's Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) input, though the listed sourcing share is small and moderately substitutable.
78% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →supply up