Brazil’s oil output hits record as war drives up non-OPEC supply
Record oil output in Brazil increases crude supply to the market and offsets some supply pressure elsewhere.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil is a critical, one-to-one refining input for gasoline and diesel, so more feedstock should increase downstream fuel availability.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upHigher crude feedstock supply eases refining constraints, supporting greater home heating oil output and availability.
95% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upBrazil supplies 3.7% of Canadian crude oil imports, so Brazil's record output should modestly improve crude feedstock availability, and those imports are a strong input to jet fuel (0.75 dependency strength).
63% confidenceSoybeans →Prices easeBrazil’s record crude output should soften oil prices, and the cited source says higher oil prices boost soybean-oil demand in biodiesel, so the inverse likely दबresses demand and prices for soy-derived cooking oils.
58% confidenceHop 2
Home heating oil →supply upRecord Brazilian output increases crude availability, directly easing the critical feedstock constraint for home heating oil.
93% confidenceGasoline and diesel →supply upBrazil’s record crude output adds feedstock to refinery supply, easing the primary input constraint for gasoline and diesel production.
91% confidenceJet fuel →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Record Brazilian crude output eases crude feedstock availability for jet fuel, and this is a critical high-dependency input to the product.
68% confidenceHop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upBrazil's record crude output eases upstream feedstock tightness, making this critical jet-fuel input more available.
85% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitExxonMobilXOM
As a direct recipient of this feedstock, ExxonMobil should benefit from lower input tightness and improved crude availability.
70% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitValero's direct Gulf Coast feedstock input should become cheaper and easier to source as Brazilian supply lifts the market.
69% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
More abundant crude feedstock should benefit Marathon's refining operations by easing supply pressure on a direct input.
68% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitMotiva should see some relief in feedstock availability and cost because this current node is a direct input to its operations.
61% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitPhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 is a direct consumer of this feedstock, so broader crude supply should modestly improve its input conditions.
60% confidenceHop 4
Valero Energy →Prices easeGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Brazil's record crude output adds market supply, which should ease Valero's crude feedstock costs; this is a meaningful but not sole-source input with moderate substitutability.
84% confidencePhillips 66 →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Additional Brazilian crude output should ease tightness in Phillips 66's Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) input, though the listed sourcing share is small and moderately substitutable.
78% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Brazil’s record crude output should modestly ease availability for Marathon’s Gulf Coast jet-fraction feedstock, but the effect is limited by the input’s small share and moderate substitutability.
73% confidenceMotiva Enterprises LLC →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Brazil's record oil output should modestly loosen crude supply into Motiva's feedstock stream, but the effect is limited by the edge's small 3.75% share and only moderate substitutability.
73% confidenceExxonMobil →supply upBrazil's record oil output adds crude to the global market, easing ExxonMobil's crude feedstock availability through this input relationship.
68% confidenceValero Energy →Prices easeGrupo AeromexicoAERO
If crude supply pressure eases, jet fuel prices can soften, benefiting Aeromexico as a fuel customer that buys from suppliers including Valero at market-based Platts prices.
61% confidence