107,000 hectares of forest land burned due to El Nino
Large-scale forest fires indicate substantial damage to land and biomass supply in the affected region.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd (Sinar Mas Group) →Shortage riskPalm fresh fruit bunches (FFB)
Forest fires damage plantation land and biomass, so Golden Agri-Resources' FFB output is constrained; the 4.5% market share and 36-month replacement lead time make the hit material but not total.
69% confidenceSime Darby Plantation Berhad →Shortage riskPalm fresh fruit bunches (FFB)
El Niño-linked fires that damage plantation land can constrain FFB output; this link carries about 6% share and is hard to replace quickly given a 36-month lead time.
68% confidencePT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk →Shortage riskHop 2
RBD Palm Oil (Confectionery & Bakery Fat) →Shortage riskIndonesia accounts for 59.6% of this input's supply, so severe fire damage in the region should significantly tighten RBD Palm Oil availability from the dominant source.
83% confidenceRBD Palm Oil (Confectionery & Bakery Fat) →Prices riseRBD Palm Oil is an input to snacks and confectionery, so a supply shock to this fat likely raises their ingredient costs.
72% confidenceHop 3
Indonesia →Shortage riskRBD Palm Oil (Confectionery & Bakery Fat)
Indonesia supplies 59.6% of this input in the graph, so large fire-related land and plantation damage there is likely to tighten RBD palm oil availability materially.
92% confidenceIndonesia →Shortage riskPalm fresh fruit bunches (FFB)
With Indonesia accounting for 59% of global FFB supply in the graph, burned land and crop damage in the country should directly constrain fresh fruit bunch output.
91% confidenceIndonesia →Shortage riskHop 4
Engineered Wood Panel (Particleboard/MDF/Plywood) →Shortage riskFurniture is a critical, high-dependency user of engineered wood panels (0.85 dependency strength), so fire-driven panel scarcity should directly constrain furniture production.
94% confidenceEngineered Wood Panel (Particleboard/MDF/Plywood) →Stands to benefitGeorgia-Pacific LLC (Koch Industries)
As a panel supplier with 13% market share and a 4-month replacement lead time, Georgia-Pacific can gain diverted demand and firmer pricing when Indonesian supply is disrupted.
60% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Snacks & confectionery · Furniture
Companies you may own
AALGeorgia-Pacific LLC (Koch Industries)
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.