Oil demand falls, but the market is short 1.8 million barrels per day

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude oil feedstock is a critical, one-to-one input to gasoline and diesel refining, so a crude shortage tightens finished fuel supply.

   99% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil is directly produced from crude feedstock, so a crude supply deficit propagates as a shortage of heating oil output.

   99% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is a critical input to jet fuel, so a broad crude supply deficit tightens jet fuel availability downstream.

2. Hop 2

   Gasoline and diesel →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Gasoline and diesel is entirely dependent on crude oil feedstock, so a global 1.8 million bpd crude deficit leaves that input tight.

   94% confidence

   Sustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) →Stands to benefit

   Neste CorporationNESTE.HE

   As the 60% market-share supplier of HEFA with low substitutability and long replacement lead time, Neste should benefit if the oil deficit shifts demand toward HEFA.

   68% confidence

   Sustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) →Prices rise

   Jet fuel

3. Hop 3

   Neste Corporation →Stands to benefit

   Sustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids)NESTE

   A short oil market tends to boost demand for HEFA SAF as a jet-fuel substitute, and Neste accounts for about 60% of this supply with low substitutability and a long replacement lead time.

   67% confidence