Disruptionfacility incident · September 6, 2026

Alert: a new pest in orchards can cause damage to up to 60% of production

A crop pest threatening orchards could materially reduce fruit output and near-term agricultural supply.

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Crop seeds, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

First impact
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Fresh produce staples
This is a critical downstream category with 0.88 dependency strength on Mexico fresh horticultural imports, so orchard losses in Mexico should tighten availability.
87% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Mexico
Mexico accounts for 65% of this supply flow, so a pest-driven orchard hit directly constrains the dominant source pool.
86% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Calavo Growers, Inc.CVGW
Calavo's 8% exposure and 3-month replacement lag make it vulnerable to a near-term input shortfall.
Hop 2
Fresh produce staples →Shortage risk
Field production (planting, irrigation, pest management)
A new orchard pest directly disrupts field production and pest management, and the alert says it can damage up to 60% of production, implying a material output shortfall.
90% confidence
Driscoll's, Inc. →Shortage risk
Mexico fresh horticultural imports
A pest damaging orchard output can tighten the availability of Mexico-sourced fresh horticultural imports, and Driscoll's has a nontrivial though replaceable dependence on that input.
71% confidence
Sysco Corporation →Shortage risk
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.BRCB
Hop 3
Copaltas S.A.S. →Shortage risk
Mission Produce, Inc.AVO
Copaltas operates avocado farms in Colombia and Mission Produce owns an approximate 30% interest, so a pest-driven production drop at Copaltas would reduce Mission’s attributable avocado supply.
62% confidence
Shanghai Mr. Avocado Limited →Shortage risk
Mission Produce, Inc.AVO
Mission Produce owns an approximate 28% interest in Shanghai Mr. Avocado, so a pest-driven hit to Shanghai's orchard-linked output can reduce Mission's economic exposure and earnings, though the minority stake limits the pass-through.
61% confidence

Where it lands

What you buy, and what you own.

Goods you buy

Fresh produce staples

Companies you may own

CVGWSYYAVODriscoll's, Inc.FDPBRCBCopaltas S.A.S.Shanghai Mr. Avocado Limited

Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.

In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.

How it reaches your house.

First impact

Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk

Fresh produce staples

This is a critical downstream category with 0.88 dependency strength on Mexico fresh horticultural imports, so orchard losses in Mexico should tighten availability.

87% confidence

Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk

Mexico

Mexico accounts for 65% of this supply flow, so a pest-driven orchard hit directly constrains the dominant source pool.

86% confidence

Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk

Calavo Growers, Inc.CVGW

Calavo's 8% exposure and 3-month replacement lag make it vulnerable to a near-term input shortfall.

Hop 2

Fresh produce staples →Shortage risk

Field production (planting, irrigation, pest management)

A new orchard pest directly disrupts field production and pest management, and the alert says it can damage up to 60% of production, implying a material output shortfall.

90% confidence

Driscoll's, Inc. →Shortage risk

Mexico fresh horticultural imports

A pest damaging orchard output can tighten the availability of Mexico-sourced fresh horticultural imports, and Driscoll's has a nontrivial though replaceable dependence on that input.

71% confidence

Sysco Corporation →Shortage risk

Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.BRCB

Hop 3

Copaltas S.A.S. →Shortage risk

Mission Produce, Inc.AVO

Copaltas operates avocado farms in Colombia and Mission Produce owns an approximate 30% interest, so a pest-driven production drop at Copaltas would reduce Mission’s attributable avocado supply.

62% confidence

Shanghai Mr. Avocado Limited →Shortage risk

Mission Produce, Inc.AVO

Mission Produce owns an approximate 28% interest in Shanghai Mr. Avocado, so a pest-driven hit to Shanghai's orchard-linked output can reduce Mission's economic exposure and earnings, though the minority stake limits the pass-through.

61% confidence