Erdoğanla Qara dəniz Taxıl Dəhlizi üzərində işləmək barədə razılığa gəldik - Zelenski

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Shortage risk

   Bread, grains, and flour

   Reuters reports Black Sea exports are nearly halted, and this critical high-dependency input edge means bread, grains, and flour availability tightens.

   93% confidence

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays

   Bunge LimitedBG

   With an 18% input share and a 6-month replacement lead time, the Black Sea blockade delays or disrupts Bunge's grain inputs.

   84% confidence

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Delays

   Kernel Holding S.A.

   Kernel's exposed grain-input share is material, and a Black Sea route closure stretches replenishment time and delays supply.

2. Hop 2

   Sunflower seeds →Shortage risk

   Cooking oils

   Cooking oils depend critically on sunflower seeds, so tighter seed flows directly reduce oil availability.

   90% confidence

   COFCO International Ltd. →Delays

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports)

   Black Sea wheat is a meaningful COFCO input (12% share) with a 3-month replacement lead time, so overland transit closures would most likely delay or constrain that supply.

   86% confidence

   Sunflower seeds →Delays

   Ukraine

   Ukraine accounts for 29% of sunflower-seed supply here, so a transit closure directly slows or constrains that export flow.

3. Hop 3

   Ukraine →supply up

   Sunflower seeds

   If neighboring countries relax transit restrictions, Ukrainian sunflower-seed exports can move more freely, increasing available supply; Ukraine is a large source at about 29% of supply.

   72% confidence

   Kernel Holding S.A. →Delays

   Sunflower seeds

   Kernel's larger, less-substitutable sunflower-seed dependency should face slower deliveries or tighter availability if overland grain transit is constrained.

   69% confidence

   Ukraine →supply up

   Corn Grain (Swine Feed — Primary Energy)

4. Hop 4

   Corn Grain (Swine Feed — Primary Energy) →supply up

   Pork and pork products

   Corn grain is a critical 0.95-strength feed input to pork, so reopened Ukrainian transit should raise feed availability for pork production.

   84% confidence

   Corn Grain (Swine Feed — Primary Energy) →supply up

   Cargill, Incorporated

   With a 22% market-share edge on corn grain, easier transit should increase the input supply Cargill can source and handle.

   74% confidence

   Corn Grain (Swine Feed — Primary Energy) →supply up

   Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)