Iraq’s oil lifeline reopens — but can Baghdad trust Turkey for even one year?
Reopening the oil lifeline restores crude export flow from Iraq through Turkey.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →supply upThe one-year ITP extension reopens Baghdad's northern crude export route, so Iraq's 3.3% contribution to Canadian crude imports becomes modestly more available.
74% confidenceHop 2
Iraq →supply upReopening the Turkey route restores Iraqi crude exports, directly increasing Iraq's supply contribution to crude oil feedstock, with transmission bounded by the 4% country share.
89% confidenceHop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upRestored crude feedstock directly raises refinery output for gasoline and diesel because this input is marked critical and fully required.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upMore crude feedstock increases the availability of home heating oil because the dependency is critical and direct.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Stands to benefitIrving Oil benefits from the reopened crude flow because lower feedstock scarcity eases its input constraint, and the low substitutability plus six-month replacement lag make the effect meaningful.
Hop 4
Home heating oil →supply upReopening the Iraq-Turkey export route raises crude availability, and home heating oil depends critically on crude oil feedstock (dependency_strength=1).
91% confidenceIrving Oil →supply upReopening the Iraq-through-Turkey export route should increase crude availability feeding Irving Oil, and the edge is a meaningful but not sole-sourced input with moderate replacement lag.
84% confidenceExxonMobil →supply up