Hail in southern Minas Gerais may compromise coffee production until 2028
Severe hail could reduce coffee output in southern Minas Gerais for years, tightening supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Coffee, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Green Coffee Beans — Arabica →Shortage riskSevere hail in a major arabica region directly reduces green bean availability, tightening the broader coffee input.
99% confidenceGreen Coffee Beans — Arabica →Shortage riskThe hail damage in southern Minas Gerais reduces Brazilian arabica output, so Brazil's coffee supply is constrained.
94% confidenceCOOXUPÉ (Cooperativa Regional de Cafeicultores em Guaxupé) →Shortage riskThe same hail shock should reduce this arabica-bean supply link as well; the larger 4% share makes it meaningful, though the 2-month replacement window and moderate substitutability dampen the transmission.
Hop 2
ECOM Agroindustrial Corp. →Shortage riskSevere hail in southern Minas Gerais tightens Arabica coffee supply, and ECOM’s sourced Arabica line is directly exposed with only moderate substitutability and a 3-month replacement lead time.
86% confidenceOlam Food Ingredients (ofi) →Shortage riskHail-induced damage to southern Minas Gerais arabica production directly tightens ofi's arabica green coffee input supply, with only partial substitutability and a multi-month replacement lead time.
84% confidenceNestlé →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Coffee
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.