Caucasian Knot | CPC halted oil loading after the attack on two tankers near Novorossiysk
Oil loading at CPC has been halted after tanker attacks near Novorossiysk, disrupting crude exports through the terminal.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Tengizchevroil (TCO), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Tengizchevroil (TCO) →Prices riseElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
As CPC loadings resume, TCO can normalize throughput, which modestly lifts sulfur demand; the impact is limited by sulfur's small share and moderate substitutability.
41% confidenceTengizchevroil (TCO) →Prices riseElemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock)
Restored export operations slightly raise TCO's sulfur feedstock demand, but the effect stays modest because this input is only a small share of total supply and can be substituted.
40% confidenceTengizchevroil (TCO) →Prices riseHop 2
Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →supply upA resumption in oil-linked sulfur supply directly increases feedstock availability for sulfuric acid production.
85% confidenceElemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock) →supply upPotash and phosphate fertilizers
Restored sulfur feedstock availability should ease a critical input constraint for phosphate fertilizer production, allowing more output through this high-dependency link.
84% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →supply upHop 3
Sulfuric acid →supply upElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
With CPC crude flows restored, oil/gas processing can resume producing elemental sulfur, a critical 70% input to sulfuric acid.
82% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →supply upSulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production
With CPC crude flow restored, oil/gas-processing sulfur output should be easier to obtain, which directly improves the availability of sulfuric acid used in phosphate fertilizer production.
77% confidencePotash and phosphate fertilizers →supply upHop 4
Sulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →supply upSulfuric acid is a critical fertilizer input, so restored sulfuric acid availability should directly increase downstream fertilizer and crop-input supply.
90% confidenceSulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →Stands to benefitOCP's large fertilizer footprint and direct sulfuric-acid dependence make it a meaningful beneficiary of restored input supply.
80% confidenceSulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Sulfuric acid · Potash and phosphate fertilizers · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Propane (home use)
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.