Donald Trump temporarily allowed trade in Russian oil; decision sparks criticism in the US
Temporary permission to trade Russian oil would ease flows of Russian crude into trade channels.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Rosneft →supply upTemporary permission to trade Russian oil should increase Rosneft-origin crude flowing into trade channels, modestly raising the availability of crude oil feedstock on this supply link.
68% confidenceHop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical one-to-one input for gasoline and diesel, so easier Russian crude trade should raise their available supply.
95% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upMore crude feedstock should ease the main input constraint on home heating oil, increasing its availability.
94% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Stands to benefitGreater crude availability should ease feedstock constraints for Irving Oil, and the low substitutability plus 6-month replacement lead time imply a meaningful benefit.
Hop 3
Home heating oil →supply upEasing Russian crude trade should increase crude oil feedstock availability for heating-oil refining, and this is the product's sole critical input on the graph.
90% confidenceIrving Oil →supply upAllowing more Russian oil into trade channels should increase availability of Irving Oil's crude-oil feedstock; the 6-month replacement lead time and limited substitutability make the relief meaningful.
87% confidencePBF Energy →supply upHop 4
Shell plc →Prices easeShell Trading (US) Company represents 35% of Talos's 2025 revenues, so easier Russian crude flows could displace some Shell demand for Talos barrels and दबress Talos's realized prices.
46% confidenceShell plc →Prices easeShell Trading US Company accounted for 21.4% of Crescent's revenues, so more available Russian crude could reduce Shell's need to buy Crescent's output and push prices lower.
42% confidenceShell plc →Prices ease