Oil surges above $100 a barrel as US and Iran launch new attacks, while gasoline prices also jump
The headline signals heightened risk to crude oil flows and refined-fuel supply, with gasoline prices reacting sharply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseCrude oil feedstock is a critical input to gasoline and diesel, so war-driven pressure on the feedstock should transmit quickly as higher fuel prices.
96% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseThe diesel/gasoline price shock is tightly tied to higher crude prices, and crude is the core feedstock for both fuels, so the cost increase transmits strongly upstream.
93% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseHop 2
Seafood and fish →Prices easeFish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed)
Higher diesel costs constrain seafood output, which lowers aquaculture feed demand and puts downward pressure on fish-meal and fish-oil prices.
80% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseDistillate refining depends heavily on refinery-grade hydrogen, so war-driven diesel and heating-oil price pressure raises hydrogen demand and cost.
77% confidenceSeafood and fish →Prices easeHop 3
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Prices riseRefinery-grade hydrogen is a critical input to home-heating-oil refining, so hydrogen cost pressure transmits directly into higher heating-oil costs.
89% confidenceFish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed) →Shortage riskFish meal and fish oil is marked as a critical, high-dependency aquaculture feed input for seafood and fish, so a squeeze here transmits mainly as downstream shortage.
88% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Prices rise