With a new oil pipeline, Canadians are being asked to make a bet on the past
A new oil pipeline would add transportation capacity for crude oil, shifting export flows and supply routes.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upThis is a critical jet-fuel feedstock edge, so added crude transport capacity should raise jet fuel availability.
91% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitExxonMobilXOM
More available crude feedstock should ease input access for ExxonMobil, which has a material share on this edge.
75% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitMore available crude feedstock should ease input access for Valero, which has a material share on this edge.
Hop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical one-to-one input to gasoline and diesel, so added crude transport capacity should raise downstream fuel availability.
92% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upHome heating oil also depends directly on crude oil feedstock, so better crude logistics should increase its supply.
90% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upCanada accounts for 24% of this crude feedstock supply mix, so more pipeline capacity should increase the availability of Canadian crude reaching export and refining markets.
Hop 3
Gasoline and diesel →supply upCrude Transportation — Pipeline & Marine
A new oil pipeline directly expands crude transportation capacity, so the upstream transport process that gasoline and diesel rely on becomes more available.
88% confidenceHome heating oil →supply upAdded crude pipeline capacity directly raises the availability of the critical crude oil feedstock that home heating oil depends on.
86% confidenceCanada →supply upCanada supplies 82.6% of this input, and added crude-oil pipeline capacity should ease transport of Canadian oil-derived output, increasing availability.
Hop 4
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →supply upBitumen/asphalt binder is a critical input for asphalt and paving materials, so improved crude transport capacity that supports binder availability should raise downstream supply.
79% confidenceBitumen / Asphalt Binder →Stands to benefitCanada accounts for 82.6% of this node's country supply share, so easing crude transport in Canada should disproportionately benefit Canadian supply and export capacity.
69% confidence