Photomodule surge! Phosphate indium shortage exceeds 70%
A severe shortage of indium phosphate/related photomodule inputs could constrain semiconductor and optics supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Indium Metal (ITO for Displays + Semiconductors), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gallium →Shortage riskGallium feeds an is_critical input path into semiconductors and chips, so a severe gallium shortage should tighten chip supply.
84% confidenceGermanium Metal (Semiconductor Grade) →Shortage riskSpecialty chips have a critical 0.7 dependency on germanium metal, so a shortage at this input directly tightens chip supply.
72% confidenceIndium Metal (ITO for Displays + Semiconductors) →Stands to benefitChina accounts for 57% of this input's supply, so a severe shortage should tighten the market and favor Chinese producers through higher realized prices.
Hop 2
China →Shortage riskChina supplies 98% of gallium, so a China-origin shortage can directly tighten gallium availability.
93% confidenceChina →Shortage riskChina accounts for 95% of terbium supply, so a China shock can materially constrain terbium availability.
91% confidenceKorea Zinc →Shortage riskIndium Metal (ITO for Displays + Semiconductors)
Korea Zinc’s 25% share indium-metal supply and 18-month replacement lead time make its indium output a credible scarcity point in this indium-related chain.
Hop 3
Terbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage riskRare earth magnets depend critically on terbium, so a terbium shortage can directly constrict magnet production and availability.
82% confidenceHop 4
Rare earth magnets →Prices easeNeodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal
If rare earth magnet output is constrained, orders for this critical NdPr feedstock soften and put downward pressure on its price.
64% confidenceRare earth magnets →Prices easeDy is a critical magnet additive, so weaker magnet production reduces demand and likely eases Dy pricing.
62% confidenceRare earth magnets →Prices easeNdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder
A magnet output shortfall means less throughput through the alloy strip and powder stage, which should reduce demand for that input.