Evropa a ruský plyn: Embargo jako kouřová clona
An embargo on Russian gas would materially affect gas flows into Europe and related energy supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskEuropean gas supply
Gazprom confirmed that gas exports to Europe via Ukraine ended when the transit deal expired, directly reducing inflows to Europe.
“Ruský Gazprom podle agentury Reuters potvrdil, že vývoz plynu do Evropy přes Ukrajinu skončil”
91% confidenceCited →Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Prices riseEuropean natural gas prices
Reduced Russian gas deliveries have already translated into higher gas prices, so an embargo would push European prices up as supply tightens.
“Trh na situaci reaguje zvýšením cen plynu”
78% confidenceCited →Equinor ASA →Prices riseNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
With an 8% share and a 12-month replacement horizon, this gas stream is materially exposed to embargo-driven European gas price pressure, even though it remains partially substitutable.
75% confidenceEquinor ASA →Prices riseThis is a small 3% supply share, so an embargo-driven tightening of Europe’s gas balance is most likely to show up as higher prices for roasting-fuel gas rather than a complete shortage.
69% confidenceEquinor ASA →Prices riseAn embargo on Russian gas would tighten European natural-gas supply, and this edge shows Equinor relies on Natural Gas for 20% of its input mix, so its input costs would rise.
63% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseNatural gas wellhead productionBP
A Russian-gas embargo tightens European gas markets and would raise BP's cost for natural-gas feedstock, though the input is only moderately substitutable.
60% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas →Prices easeAn embargo directly cuts Russian export volumes and realized prices for a supplier with an 18% share of natural-gas supply.
96% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices riseWith a critical 0.8 dependency on natural-gas inputs, higher gas prices should raise industrial-gas costs and can constrain output.
84% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices riseSEMPRASRE
Sempra disclosed that higher average natural-gas prices drove a $150 million increase in its natural-gas cost, so a gas-price shock should raise its costs.
Hop 3
Industrial gases →Shortage riskHydrogen Production via SMR or Electrolysis
Hydrogen production inside industrial gases is directly exposed because the SMR branch uses natural gas feedstock, so a gas embargo can cut feedstock and reduce throughput.
74% confidenceSEMPRA →Stands to benefitShell plcSHEL
Shell holds a firm agreement for 36% of the terminal's capacity, so a Russian-gas embargo that tightens European supply makes that regas capacity more valuable to Shell.
69% confidenceSEMPRA →Stands to benefitTotalEnergies is one of the affiliates that collectively subscribes for all Cameron LNG Phase 1 capacity, so tighter non-Russian gas markets increase the value of its secured LNG capacity rights.
Hop 4
Shell plc →Stands to benefitSempra (ECA Regas Facility)SRE
Shell has a firm agreement for 36% of the terminal's capacity, so a Russian-gas embargo that tightens European gas supply should make regasification capacity more valuable and raise utilization for the facility.
67% confidenceTotalEnergies SE →Stands to benefitThe 20-year Cameron LNG capacity agreements show TotalEnergies affiliates rely on this LNG infrastructure, and an embargo on Russian gas would raise the value of alternative LNG supply and terminal capacity, benefiting Sempra.
61% confidenceShell plc →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Industrial gases
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